MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: June 2025

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• May’s refunding round saw guidance as well as coupon sizes for the current quarter unchanged.
• The August round (Jul 28-30) could prove more compelling, reflecting both pressure at the long end of the Treasury curve as well as a shifting fiscal outlook amid tariff revenues contrasted with impending tax cuts (not to mention the likelihood of approaching the debt limit at around that time if it’s not lifted).
• Future Coupon Upsizing: We’ve seen some expectations that Treasury could lean against some of those trends in the August refunding, with potential signals if not immediate action on adjusting buybacks or even reducing issuance duration in order to reduce pressure on the long end. MNI’s current expectation is that coupon sizes will only be increased in early 2026. We will update in our next Deep Dive at end-June, with our full refunding preview coming in late July.
• Upcoming issuance: June is set to see $315B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $23B in 10Y TIPS and $28B FRN for a total of $366B. Sales for the month start in the coming week, on Tuesday June 10 with $58B of 3Y Note, Wednesday June 11 with $39B of 10Y Note, and Thursday June 12 with $22B of 30Y Bond.
• May Auction Results: Against a backdrop of continued steepening pressure for global sovereign curves, May’s coupon auctions saw strong sales at the short-end/belly contrasted with tails at the long-end.