TURKEY: Officials Reportedly Considering Appointing New Members to MPC Board
Bloomberg report, citing people familiar with the matter, that Turkish officials are discussing appointing new policymakers to the central bank’s rate-setting committee ahead of the retirement Deputy Governor Cevdet Akcay, whose term will end in April. More from the piece below:
- "In order to address potential investor concerns around Akcay’s departure, officials led by Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek are discussing appointing one or two new policymakers to the MPC before April."
- "Names of potential candidates have not yet been disclosed."
- "Another option is for Akcay to continue serving in the Monetary Policy Committee as a member after the appointment of a new deputy governor."
- That option would be viable because the 65 year legal age limit for retirement (Akcay will turn 65 in April) does not apply to regular MPC members.
The MPC has seven seats, of which five are currently occupied. That includes include Governor Fatih Karahan, his two deputies, Cevdet Akcay and Hatice Karahan, as well as Elif Haykir Hobikoglu and Fatma Ozkul. Two deputy governor seats are currently empty. Any appointments are subject to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s approval.
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GOLD: Last Tuesday's ATH Still Intact For Gold; Spot Up 0.35% Today
A fresh extension higher for gold prices has now faded, leaving spot up 0.35% on the session at $3,655/oz after peaking at $3,664 around 30 minutes ago.
- Initial resistance remains Tuesday’s all-time high of $3,674. Clearance of this level would expose round number resistance at $3,700.
- There hasn’t been an obvious headline driver for today’s modest gold rally. Instead, we suggest that positioning ahead of the Fed’s likely 25bp rate cut on Wednesday is factoring into price action, potentially alongside well-established Fed independence concerns following US President Trump’s latest calls for lower rates.
- A reminder that the US Senate will hold a cloture vote on Stephen Miran's Fed Board nomination at around 17:30 ET / 22:30 BST, with a full confirmation vote likely to take place at roughly 20:00 ET / 01:00 BST. Despite some reservations from institutionalist Senate Republicans, there is not expected to be any GOP opposition.
- Separately, we note that considerations around a physical gold trading tax in Thailand (due to domestic FX concerns) has not had a material impact on spot prices today.
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SFRV5 96.43/96.62cs vs 96.25/96.12ps, bought the cs for 1 in 4k.
EUROZONE DATA: Soft Imports Take Some Of The Edge Off A Solid June [2/2]
- The modest widening in the surplus came as imports (-0.8% M/M) fell by more than exports (-0.1% M/M).
- It sees imports unwind part of the 3.0% M/M increase in June in what was a rare solid reading compared to recent months.
- An important caveat when it comes to digging into import details for domestic demand implications -- the miscellaneous category again shows a surge but this was revised away last month as these unclassified items are eventually correctly allocated.
- Specifically, the miscellaneous category surged 172% from to E6.8bn in Aug from a typical E2.5bn in July, with the latter initially reported at E7.1bn.
- With that in mind, monthly declines are currently seen as being led by the typically volatile raw materials category (-7.5% M/M) along with manufactured goods (-2.8%) and food, drinks & tobacco (-1.8%).
- We tend to focus on machinery & transport within manufactured goods, and this currently shows a disappointing -2.6% M/M to undo a sizeable part of June’s 4.0% increase. In doing so, it crimped annual growth in this nominal category to just 2.5% Y/Y.
