NZD: Off Thursday Highs, But Outperforms USD Rise, RBNZ Next Week

• RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
• RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg 
• RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
• PRICE: 96.535 @ 15:58 BST Sep 2
• SUP 1: 96.450/95.900 - Low Jul 16 / Low Jan 14  
• SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
• SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support 

Aussie 3-yr futures are trading inside a range and closer to recent lows. A resumption of gain would further narrow the gap with resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high, leaving 96.860 as the next key level. Any continuation lower would instead strengthen a bearish threat. This would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low. Conversely, a reversal higher would open 96.860, the Apr 7 high.

Overnight the average price for whole milk powder fell to $3809 versus $4036 at the previous auction, per GDT . This was a 5.3% drop. The chart below plots this price index against the Citi NZ terms of trade proxy. The whole milk powder price is now at fresh lows for 2025. The terms of trade proxy has matched this fall recently. 

• BBG noted: "The GDT price index change, which is a weighted average of the percentage changes in individual milk products between trading events, was a decrease of 4.3%."
• Later today we get NZ ANZ commodity prices for August. 

Fig 1: Whole Milk Powder Prices & Citi NZ Terms Of Trade Proxy 

Source: Citi/Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI 

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI