GILTS: Off Lows, Macro Cues Eyed
Apr-17 09:33
Gilts reverse their early downtick with equities and oil off session highs.
- Little of note when it comes to UK-specific news flow, leaving cross-market cues at the fore.
- Futures traded as low as 91.73 before recovering towards 92.00 shortly after the open, holding a narrow range in the time since.
- Initial support and resistance defined at the April 15 low (91.43) and the April 16 high (92.32), with recent gains still deemed corrective at this stage.
- Yields little changed to 2bp higher, 5s under the most pressure.
- Some light outperformance vs. Bunds leaves the 10-Year spread ~1.5bp tighter on the day at ~208.5bp, ~10bp below last week’s highs.
- BoE-dated OIS little changed to ~2bp less dovish on the day, showing 25bp of easing for next month, 34bp through June, 52bp through August and 78.5bp through year-end. We continue to lean towards the idea of quarterly cuts, with the next coming in May.
- A reminder that ~87.5bp of cuts were briefly priced through year-end following yesterday’s CPI release.
- UK markets will be closed on Friday & Monday, which could limit activity and liquidity today, unless we get some meaningful news flow.
- The major scheduled macro risk event comes in the form of the latest ECB decision. A rate cut is fully discounted, leaving focus on the rhetoric deployed surrounding the stance of interest rates.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
May-25 | 4.205 | -25.3 |
Jun-25 | 4.117 | -34.2 |
Aug-25 | 3.940 | -51.9 |
Sep-25 | 3.843 | -61.5 |
Nov-25 | 3.713 | -74.6 |
Dec-25 | 3.674 | -78.5 |
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SECURITY: Trump-Putin Call Expected Between 09:00ET And 11:00ET
Mar-18 09:32
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are today scheduled to hold their first call since Ukraine accepted the terms of a US-brokered 30-day ceasefire agreement. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov told reporters this morning the call will take place between 09:00 ET/13:00 GMT and 11:00 ET/15:00 GMT.
- Peskov said the leaders would talk “as long as they consider necessary,” noting that there is a “certain understanding” but also a “large number of questions to discuss”, per Reuters.
- Trump said over the weekend: “We will be talking about land. We will be talking about power plants,” adding that negotiators had already discussed "dividing up certain assets."
- Trump yesterday expressed optimism that a deal could be struck, again emphasising Ukraine’s weak battlefield position (“They're captured, essentially, they're surrounded by Russian soldiers") raising concern among Ukraine's backers that Trump will endorse a deal that favours Moscow's conditions. Some experts suggested the deal could amount to an effective surrender that Kyiv may be unable to accept.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected Trump's characterisation of the conflict but analysts agree that Kyiv has lost control of roughly 500 sq/kms of territory in Russia’s Kursk region that Ukraine had hoped to use as a bargaining chip.
- Zelenskyy also accused Russia of obfuscating the deal: “Now, almost a week later, it’s clear to everyone in the world... that it is Putin who continues to drag out this war,”
- Newswires are expected to report confirmation of the call when it begins, with the first official statement likely to come via Trump’s Truth Social account.
- UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said yesterday “more than 30” countries have expressed interest in a so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ peacekeeping force to police a ceasefire, should Russia agree to the framework. Military representatives of the group will meet on Thursday.
GILTS: Holding Lower
Mar-18 09:25
Gilts hold lower, with supply-related pressure, higher oil and equity prices and spillover setup for the German fiscal vote weighing on wider core global FI markets.
- Futures remain within yesterday’s range, session lows of 91.80 thus far.
- Yesterday’s rally increased the risk to the bearish technical setup.
- Bulls need to overcome the Mar 17/7 highs (92.37/63), with the latter providing key resistance.
- Initial support located at the March 13 low (91.07).
- Yields 3.5-4.5bp higher across the curve, light steepening seen. Psychological levels (50bp in 2s10s and 100bp ins 5s30s) continue to cap steepening moves.
- 10-Year spread to Bunds ~1bp wider at 183bp, last week’s range (177.7-184.4bp) remains intact on a closing basis.
- Plenty of UK risk events scheduled over the next week or so, with the latest BoE decision (no change expected, vote split eyed), labour market data and Spring Statement all due.
- We will provide greater details covering our own and wider market expectations ahead of these events via the usual round of previews, as well as real-time and post-event colour.
- GBP4.25bln 4.375% Mar-28 gilt supply is due this morning.
- Outside of the auction, macro & cross-market cues are set to continue to dominate, given the backloaded nature of this week’s UK risk events.
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Mar-18 09:21
Of note:
USDJPY 1.47bn at 150.00.
AUDUSD 1.62bn at 0.6320/0.6330.
EURUSD 1.34bn at 1.0900 (wed).
EURUSD 1.23bn at 1.0900 (fri).
USDJPY 1.19bn at 150.00 (fri).
USDCAD 2.99bn at 1.4280/1.4300 (fri).
EURUSD 1bn at 1.0925 (mon).
- EURUSD: 1.0900 (603mln), 1.0910 (311mln), 1.0915 (291mln).
- USDJPY: 149.00 (999mln), 149.75 (475mln), 150.00 (1.47bn).
- EURGBP: 0.8400 (300mln), 0.8425 (458mln).
- USDCAD: 1.4270 (399mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6320 (922mln), 0.6330 (697mln), 0.6350 (213mln), 0.6430 (369mln).
- USDCNY: 7.2200 (400mln).
