BONDS: Off Lows Following Canadian Jobs

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Executive summary:

• President Donald Trump will hold a White House lunch today with the leaders of Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, and Senegal to discuss “commercial opportunities”.
• Markets have largely shrugged off Trump’s latest tariff ultimatum, likely assessing that major trade partners will strike preliminary agreements before the new August 1 deadline or receive another extension.
• Markets have been less sanguine about the prospect of a punitive new tariff on copper imports, designed to reshore copper production in the United States.
• South Korea is eyeing an in-person meeting between Trump and President Lee Jae-myung. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Tokyo and Washington will "swiftly proceed with negotiations towards the newly set August 1 deadline".
• Trump told reporters yesterday he would "probably" tell the European Union within two days what tariff rate it can expect.
• Trump's economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, has emerged as the slight favourite to be nominated as the next Fed chair.
• Senate leaders are expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this afternoon as negotiators in Qatar struggle to make a breakthrough on a Gaza ceasefire.
• Trump is leaning closer to endorsing a new Russia sanctions package. The primary concern for the White House is how to calibrate secondary sanctions without dramatically increasing tensions with China and India.
• Poll of the Day: Very few Americans support reducing or eliminating funding for social services.

Please find the full article attached below: US DAILY BRIEF

Westpac recommend entering GBP/AUD shorts on a move to 2.0920, with a stop loss at 2.1050 and target of 2.0500.

• They note that “GBP/AUD has been repeatedly cresting into well-defined resistance in recent weeks. The RBA, against expectations, kept rates on hold in July and markets have since shifted to a full cut for August, though crucially it depends on Q2 CPI (30 July) not surprising too much on the upside.”
• Meanwhile, “UK PM Starmer suffered a damaging rebellion over proposed welfare reforms, damaging his authority, and raising the potential for a renewal of the “political risk” premium in GBP/Gilts”.

• Sources report huge inter-commodity spread went up on the CME Direct platform
• Symbol FYT: trades 35,311 FVU5 vs. TYU5 on a 3:2 ratio (105k FVU5 vs. 70k TYU5), 0.002 last.
• Checking direction, but curves are looking mildly steeper this morning, 5s10s currently +.037 at 42.704.