GILTS: Off Lows, BoE & Budget Continue To Dominate Headlines
Gilts have recovered from session lows.
- A move away from session highs in crude oil futures provided background support.
- Futures +7 at 93.69. Initial support and resistance located at 93.15 & 93.96, with the technical trend structure remaining bullish.
- Yields essentially unchanged on the day. October lows untested across the curve.
- Bulls haven’t managed to push 10-Year yields meaningfully below 4.40%.
- UK headline flow remains focused on this month’s Budget: In summary, a "settling-up charge", housing taxes, energy VAT reduction and CGT death exemption removal are amongst the major topics covered (see earlier bullet “UK FISCAL: Weekend media updates on the Budget” for more).
- GBP STIRs little changed vs. late Friday levels.
- SONIA futures flat to +1.5.
- BoE-dated OIS prices ~7bp of easing for this week’s BoE decision, 16.5bp through December and 31.5bp through February.
- The bulk of the dovish move that followed the latest CPI release has held, after Dec ’25 MPC pricing hit the most dovish level seen since early August
- We would categorise our own view of this week’s meeting as 50/50 between a 25bp cut and a hold. If it wasn't for the upcoming Budget we would have more certainty that a cut would be delivered given the downside surprises to inflation (particularly as this was driven by food) and the downside surprise to wage growth.
- Note that a GBP550mln sale from the long bucket of the BoE’s APF portfolio is due this afternoon.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA (bp) |
Nov-25 | 3.897 | -7.3 |
Dec-25 | 3.805 | -16.5 |
Feb-26 | 3.654 | -31.5 |
Mar-26 | 3.592 | -37.7 |
Apr-26 | 3.479 | -49.1 |
Jun-26 | 3.448 | -52.1 |
Jul-26 | 3.386 | -58.3 |
Sep-26 | 3.371 | -59.8 |
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USDCAD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4045 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 2: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3989 200-dma
- PRICE: 1.3953 @ 16:02 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 1.3897/3825 Low Sep 30 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and yesterday’s break above the late September’s high, firms the bullish theme. This move higher also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, first key support lies at 1.3825, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01
- PRICE: 0.6603 @ 16:01 BST Oct 3
- SUP 1: 0.6527/21 61.8% of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg / Low Sep 26
- SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6558. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6527 once again, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, the Sep 17 high. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: September's Coupon Auctions Were Generally Solid (2/2)
September’s coupon auctions were generally solid, with three lines trading through, two coming out on the screws and two tailing slightly.
- Looking through the lens of MNI’s Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), five lines saw positive readings while two saw negative readings.
- The 3-year sale was the strongest auction of the month according to MNI’s RSI. The 3-year line traded through 0.7bps, the largest stop through in seven months. Meanwhile, the primary dealer take-up was just 8.4%, the lowest on record (data going back to 2003).
- The weakest sale of the month was the last – the 7-year line. This line saw the second consecutive 0.5bp tail, with the 12.0% primary dealer take-up above August’s 9.8% and July’s record low 4.1%.
September Auction Review:
- 2Y Note on-the-screws: 3.571% vs. 3.571% WI.
- 2Y FRN: 0.200% high margin vs. 0.195% prior
- 3Y Note trade-through: 3.485% vs. 3.492% WI.
- 5Y Note tail: 3.710% vs 3.709% WI.
- 7Y Note tail: 3.953% vs. 3.948% WI.
- 10Y Note trade-through: 4.033% vs. 4.047% WI.
- 10Y TIPS: 1.734% high yield vs. 1.985% prior
- 20Y Bond trade-through: 4.613% vs 4.615% WI.
- 30Y Bond on-the-screws: 4.651% vs. 4.651% WI.
