GILTS: Off Lows As Wider Bonds Firm
Demand in wider core global FI markets has helped gilts away from session lows.
- There has been little in the way of domestic inputs to move the needle.
- Roll activity continues to dominate (we provided our latest estimate of the roll completion pace in a recent bullet).
- Futures pierced next support during this morning’s weakness before a recovery back to the 90.70 area in recent trade.
- Bears remain in technical control and fresh weakness would target 90.11. Bulls need to retake 91.32 to start turning the tide.
- Yields 1bp higher to 1bp lower, curve twist flattens.
- 10s failed to hold the move back above 4.75%, while bears failed to push 50s atop 5.00%.
- 2s10s has retraced back to ~75bp in recent days after a steepening move ran out of steam before a test of 80bp took place.
- Meanwhile, 5s30s trades back below 145bp after registering a fresh cycle high at 148.96bp earlier in the week.
- The latest move above 200bp in the gilt/Bund spread was once again limited, last trading ~199bp, ~2bp wider on the day.
- Developments in Jackson Hole remain front & centre ahead of the weekend.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6621 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 1- 17 price swing
- RES 1: 0.6601 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.6587 @ 14:33 BST Jul 23
- SUP 1: 0.6494/6455 50-day EMA / Low Jul 17
- SUP 2: 0.6435 23.6% retracement of the Sep 9 - Jul 11 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Today’s appreciation has resulted in a print above key short-term resistance at 0.6595, the Jul 11 high and bull trigger. This resumes the uptrend and sights are on 0.6688, the Nov 7’ 24 high. Support to watch is around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6494. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Former Fed Director Bill English Speaks About Rates
Former director of the Fed Board's division of monetary affairs William English speaks about rates, political pressures -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
US: Trump Underscores Willingness To Reduce Tariffs If Countries Open Markets
President Trump posts the following on Truth Social "I will always give up Tariff points if I can get major countries to OPEN THEIR MARKETS TO THE USA. Another great power of Tariffs. Without them, it would be impossible to get countries to OPEN UP!!! ALWAYS, ZERO TARIFFS TO AMERICA!!!"
