BONDS: Off Early Highs

• We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight.
• Please find the full report here: https://media.marketnews.com/Oct2025_EZCPI_Review_a8c2d28cbb.pdf

• Eurozone HICP inflation was as expected in the flash October release but core HICP surprised a little stronger with a Y/Y rate showing no moderation from September.  
• Services inflation ticked higher although country-level data hint at volatile travel-related categories at play.
• The full October release on Nov 19 will provide a more useful update on exact drivers.
• By major country, Germany, Spain and Netherlands were all stronger than expected, France was in line and Italy saw a sizeable downside miss.
• The ECB is still seen being unlikely to cut at the next meeting in December (1-2bp priced) but with some sources warning that it could see more a lively discussion than some are expecting.

• RES 4: 1.1820 High Sep 23
• RES 3: 1.1775 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 9 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.1669/1728 High Oct 28and key resistance / High Oct 17 
• RES 1: 1.1577 Low Oct 22 
• PRICE: 1.1518 @ 10:25 GMT Nov 3
• SUP 1: 1.1508 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 1.1460 1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - 22 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

EURUSD is trading lower today, as the current bear leg extends. The pair last Friday breached an important support  at 1.1542, the Oct 9 low. This confirms a resumption of the current downtrend. Note that 1.1516, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would expose key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. Resistance to watch is 1.1669, the Oct 17 high.

Large Lloyds Option Block trade, unconfirmed buyer:

• LLOY (19th Dec) 92c, blocked at 2.5 in 10k.