EM CEEMEA CREDIT: OETC: FV $ 5Y Green Sukuk
(OMGRID; Ba1/NR/BB+)
IPT at T+145bp area FV at T+113bp
- We sketch our FV considerations at z+145bp or T+113bp.
- When looking for comparables, we consider the OMGRID curve as well as the sovereign OMAN curves. For context, we look at how spread curves have moved since the recent Sukuk issuance by sovereign Oman (OMANGS 33s). We focus on OMGRID 5.8 Feb31 and OMANGS 4.875 Jun30 (see chart below).
- OETC benefits from having a monopoly in Oman’s electricity transmission. The government owns 51% with the remaining 49% held by State Grid International Development Ltd / State Grid Corporation of China “the world’s largest transmission network operator” (source: Co. website).
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GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $3800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $3783.2 - 1.618 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 2: $3744.2 - 1.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: $3707.6 - High Sep 17
- PRICE: $3702.8 @ 07:25 BST Sep 22
- SUP 1: $3614.0 - Low Sep 11
- SUP 2: $3577.9 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3473.5 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20
Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and short-term pullbacks are for now, considered corrective. A fresh all-time high, once again last week, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3744.2, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3577.9, the 20-day EMA. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
BRENT TECHS: (X5) Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: $79.16 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $77.28 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $76.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $69.53/71.93 - High Sep 2 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $67.07 @ 07:10 BST Sep 22
- SUP 1: $64.50 - Low Jun 30 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: $60.82 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.37 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.81 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures remain above the Sep 5 low. Recent short-term gains are for now, considered corrective and a bear cycle remains intact. Sights are on $64.50, the Jun 30 low, where a clear break would confirm a continuation of the bear leg. This would open $60.82, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $71.93, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level is required to cancel a bear theme.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: 174.50 High Sep 19
- PRICE: 173.98 @ 07:15 BST Sep 22
- SUP 1: 173.01/171.83 20- and 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14
- SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
- SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1
The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and last Thursday’s gains reinforce current conditions. The cross breached resistance at 173.97, the Jul 28 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 173.01, the 20-day EMA.
