CHINA PRESS: Oct Economic Indicators To Show Weakened Momentum
Industrial output is expected to slow to 5.7% y/y in October from September’s 6.5%, as Oct manufacturing PMI fell again after rising for two consecutive months, according to economists surveyed by Yicai.com. The average forecast for Oct retail sales is 2.7% y/y, lower than the 3% figure released last month, tamed by the higher comparison base for the same period last year when the government introduced consumer goods trade-in policy. Meanwhile, fixed-asset investment for the first 10 months may decline further by 0.8% from the previous 0.5% fall, as the government’s "anti-involution" campaign has led to a temporary halt in capacity expansion in some industries. The National Bureau of Statistics is set to release the latest data on Friday.
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CHINA: 10-Yr Bond Future Tests Key Technical
- Bond futures are lower in morning trade, with the 10-Yr down -0.14 as equities open stronger.
- The fall in the 10-Yr saw the future trade near to the 20-day EMA of 107.87, failing to break below.
- The 2-Yr is down -0.02 at 102.346 to move further below all major moving averages.
- The 10-Yr CGB is up marginally in yield at 1.85% and continues to trade in tight ranges between 1.80% - 1.90% and has been unable to break clear of this range, despite the issuance across central and regional government and despite the absence of PBOC buying. The equity strength of late has failed to push yields dramatically higher either suggesting that we could be in this range for the near term or until further policy were to be announced.
- China is issuing CNY40 bn of 2045 bonds today as the key issuance for the week.
CHINA PRESS: E-commerce Platforms Begin Shopping Festival Promotion
Several leading e-commerce platforms have already kicked off their campaigns for the upcoming Nov 11 “Double 11” shopping festival, according to a report by Yicai. Sources indicate that Taobao’s Flash Sale platform will participate in Tmall’s Double 11 for the first time this year, offering more than 10 million free-order coupons to consumers. Zhang Yi, founder and chief analyst at iiMedia Research, noted that the integration of instant retail services into the Double 11 event is likely to intensify the subsidy competition among platforms. With food delivery companies expected to join the event, Zhang anticipates sharper price wars across categories such as daily necessities, baby products, and food. However, for small- and medium-sized merchants, business may become increasingly challenging, Yicai noted.
CHINA PRESS: China's Imports Should Achieve Positive Annual Growth
China’s steady recovery in domestic demand is expected to drive imports to positive annual growth, following a 7.5% year-on-year increase in September, according to Cui Fan, professor at the University of International Business and Economics. Total imports for the first nine months reached CNY13.6 trillion, narrowing the decline during the first nine months to just 0.2%. On the export front, Cui noted that cumulative exports rose 7.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with September exports up 8.4%, coming despite a 16.2% year-on-year drop in shipments to the U.S., demonstrating overall resilience.
