UK FISCAL: OBR Apologises; Chancellor Cutting Fiscal Rules Eval To Yearly
Nov-26 12:35
OBR posts on its website: "A link to our Economic and fiscal outlook document went live on our website too early this morning. It has been removed. We apologise for this technical error and have initiated an investigation into how this happened. We will be reporting to our Oversight Board, the Treasury, and the Commons Treasury Committee on how this happened, and we will make sure this does not happen again. Our Economic and fiscal outlook and supporting documents will be released when the Chancellor has finished her speech."
- The report published early notes that: "The Chancellor has announced plans to change the legislative framework to reduce the requirement on the OBR to assess the fiscal rules to once per year rather than twice, while still requiring the OBR to produce two economic and fiscal forecasts per year. Once enacted, this will affect some of the content of the Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) documents which accompany our spring forecasts from 2026 onwards, in particular in this chapter, which we would change to meet the new legislative requirements. The OBR will continue to produce and publish two full five-year economic and fiscal forecasts per year, containing estimates for all the main economic and fiscal aggregates including those that feature in the Government’s fiscal rules."
- There has been media and political speculation regarding Labour's potential antipathy towards the OBR since the party came to power last year. Today's events are unlikely to improve relations.
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PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: Quickly Expanding List of Issuers
Oct-27 12:35
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 10/27 $2B VoltaGrid 5NC2
- 10/27 $Benchmark Turkiye 11Y 7.15%
- 10/27 $Benchmark DNB Bank 6NC5 +105a
- 10/27 $Benchmark Lloyds PerpNC10 7.125%a
- 10/27 $Benchmark Procter Gamble 7Y +55a, 10Y +60a
- 10/27 $Benchmark Southwest Airline 3Y +115a, 10Y +155a
- 10/27 $Benchmark HCA Inc 5Y +110a, 7Y +120a, 10Y +130a, 30Y +150a
- 10/27 $Benchmark Sanofi 2Y +45a, 2Y SOFR, 3Y +50a, 3Y SOFR, 7Y +70a
- 10/27 $Benchmark Philip Morris 3Y +70a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +85a, 7Y +95a, 10Y +105a
- 10/27 $Benchmark America Airlines investor calls
BOC: Expected Instant Answers For Bank of Canada Interest-Rate Decision
Oct-27 12:30
Following are the Instant Answers for the Bank of Canada interest-rate decision due Wed at 945am EST:
- Target for overnight rate:
- Does the Bank signal it is prepared to lower rates in the future?
- Does the Bank say lower interest rates will likely be needed in the future?
- Does the Bank signal it intends to leave rates on hold?
- Does the Bank mention core or underlying inflation has been elevated?
- Does the Bank say it may be less forward looking with policy?
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Gilts Remains Intact
Oct-27 12:25
- In the FI space, Bund futures traded sharply lower last week and the contract maintains a softer tone, for now. The move down is considered corrective and is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind. Initial key support at 129.43, the 20-day EMA, has been breached. This exposes the 50-day EMA, currently at 129.06. For bulls, a reversal would refocus attention of the key resistance at 130.59, the Oct 17 high. First resistance is at 130.07, Friday’s high.
- A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and last week’s gains strengthen the bullish condition. The clearance of 93.17, the Oct 17 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for an extension towards 93.95 next, a 1.500 projection of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing. Note that the contract is overbought, a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Firm support to watch lies at 92.24, the 20-day EMA.
