EGBS: OATs Underperform After Lecornu Resigns; Curves Steepen
Steepening pressures have re-asserted themselves in EGB curves this morning, with OATs in the spotlight following French PM Lecornu’s resignation. OAT yields are flat to +8bps, with German counterparts -2bps (Schatz) to +3bps (30-year Bund) at typing. That sees the 10-year OAT/Bund spread up 5.5bps to 86.5bps, after briefly piercing the December 2024 high of 87.8bps in the immediate aftermath of Lecornu’s resignation.
- There is once again no clear route to a functional French Government, with the EC’s October 13 budget deadline nearing.
- OAT futures traded to a knee-jerk session low of 120.61 on the Lecornu news (piercing the Sep 25 low of 120.63), but have since recovered to 120.99. Volumes are unsurprisingly very strong.
- Bund futures have settled towards the middle of today’s 45 tick range, currently -12 ticks at 128.55.
- The EU is scheduled to hold a syndication this week, with conventional auctions set to begin tomorrow. This week sees heavy redemptions from Germany totalling E36bln.
- External steepening forces include Sanae Takaichi’s success in the LDP leadership election over the weekend, alongside ongoing US Government shutdown risks.
- Eurozone August retail sales were in line with consensus at 0.1% M/M, with July’s reading revised up a tenth to -0.4%. The October Sentix survey was slightly stronger than expected (-5.4 vs-7.7 cons, -9.2 prior).
- ECB Chief Economist Lane re-iterated the bank’s data dependent approach, while de Guindos noted again that rates are appropriate at current levels. We don’t expect any surprises from Escriva and Lagarde later today.
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LOOK AHEAD: US Macro: PPI (Wed) and CPI (Thu) Inflation
US PPI inflation is released on Wednesday before CPI inflation on Thursday, an unusual ordering that should see core PCE implications dialled in after the CPI release rather than the usual wide range waiting for specific PPI details. PPI will be watched more closely than usual this month after a far stronger than expected jump in last month’s July report fired a warning short over tariff-based cost pressures starting to feed through. That included a 0.6% M/M increase in our preferred core series of PPI ex food, energy & trade services, which strips out items such as the then booming portfolio management & investment advice category following the strength in equity markets. It's too early to gauge an accurate sense of analyst expectations for August.
CPI inflation on Thursday will then be the last major release ahead of the Sep 17 FOMC decision. Consensus looks for core CPI at 0.3% M/M after the 0.32% M/M in July, another monthly increase comfortably above a pace consistent with 2% inflation. August should in theory start to see the largest tariff impacts along with September and possibly October. Returning to July’s report, core goods inflation was softer than expected, at a still solid (by core goods standards) 0.2% M/M for a second month running but about half that of 0.4% expected by analysts. Instead, non-housing core services surprised higher. The latter was a “dangerous” development in the words of a usually dovish Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’25 voter), who speaking after Friday’s payrolls report is still undecided on a September cut whilst looking for August inflation data “to get more information”.
LOOK AHEAD: US Macro: Payrolls Preliminary Benchmark Revisions (Tue)
- The BLS on Tuesday will publish preliminary estimates of benchmark revisions, based off QCEW data for Q1.
- These will give an indication of the actual benchmark revisions on the Mar 2025 level of payrolls due with the Jan 2026 payrolls report released in early February.
- Bear in mind that the final benchmark estimate tends to nearly always be more negative than the preliminary figure – see historical values to the right.
- That doesn’t mean they can’t be large again after last year’s historically negative revision that lowered the level of payrolls by ~600k. Initial estimates we’ve seen look for another large downward revision, with the smallest being worth -550k but with wide ranges higher.
FED: Barclays Adds A Cut To 2025 Fed View
Barclays analysts now expect three Fed cuts in the remainder of the year, adding October to their pre-existing call for 25bp reductions in September and December. "Given the disappointing August employment report, we expect the FOMC to see more elevated downside risks to the employment side of the mandate."
- As for a 50bp September cut, "we think that the FOMC will view [that] as sending too strong a signal that labor market conditions are deteriorating. Indeed, we think that participants such as Powell understand that the slower pace of payroll employment reflects at least, in part, slower labor supply, which does not translate into increased labor market slack."
- For 2026 they continue to expect 25bp cuts in March and June to 3.00-3.25%, but "we do not think the FOMC will be able to cut rates more than twice next year, as we think that activity will show some slight acceleration, with the economy adapting to the new tariff environment and fiscal policy providing some support, and the unemployment rate will revert down amid limited increase in labor supply."
