BONDS: NZGBS: Richer With US Tsys, RBNZ Cut In Aug 70% Priced

Jul-09 22:58

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In local morning trade, NZGBs are 4-6bps richer after US tsys finished with a similarly sized move. ...

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JPY: USD/JPY - Back Into A Range, Awaits US CPI

Jun-09 22:57

The overnight range was 143.98 - 144.77, Asia is currently trading around 144.60. Cross JPY has benefitted from the better performance in risk and US stocks. This has seen the move lower in USD/JPY stall and return to its recent range of 142.00 - 147.00.

  • MNI JAPAN: Govt Reportedly Considering Fresh Drive for Cash Handouts. The Japanese government are reportedly mulling cash handouts as a relief measure, according to Mainichi. Not the first time we've seen this policy topic recently - this seems to be reviving an old policy idea that was dropped as recently as mid-April, at which the government dropped plans for tariff-tied cash handouts before the election in the upper house.
  • Bloomberg - “The BOJ will probably slow the pace of tapering its JGB purchases next fiscal year at the board’s upcoming meeting to around ¥200 billion ($1.38 billion) per quarter, former official Eiji Maeda said. “They won’t keep going with ¥400 billion,” he said”
  • Overnight decent demand returned in USD/JPY back towards 144.00 as US Stocks continued to press higher.
  • The market still seems very confident of a move lower in USD/JPY but with positioning quite large now we have seen the risk of pullbacks increase.
  • With the failure to break below 142.00 last week, price is back in its recent 142.00 - 147.00 range and will need a break either doe of that to get a clearer direction. US CPI tomorrow will potentially have a say.
  • Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 144.00($708m), 143.30($618m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 143.00($1.28b June 12), 140.00($1.22b June 12), 144.00($1.19b June 13).
  • CFTC data shows Asset managers maintained their already extensive JPY longs, and leveraged funds try again to build their own longs.
  • Data/Event : Money Stock, Machine Tool Orders

    Fig 1 : JPY CFTC Data

    image

    Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

     

JGB TECHS: (M5) Rallies Off Lows

Jun-09 22:45
  • RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
  • RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6 
  • RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
  • PRICE: 139.21 @ 15:52 GMT Jun 09
  • SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
  • SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg   
  • SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg

JGBs hold above recent lows, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal. 

ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today

Jun-09 22:44
  • South Korea to Sell KRW100bn 10-Year Inflation-Linked Bonds
  • Hong Kong to Sell HK$14 Billion 182-Day Bills
  • Hong Kong to Sell HK$62.596 Billion 91-Day Bills
  • Bank of Thailand to Sell THB60bn of 91-Days Bills On...
  • Bank Indonesia to Sell 92D SVBI Bills
  • Bank Indonesia to Sell 273D SVBI Bills
  • Bank Indonesia to Sell 32D SVBI Bills
  • Bank Indonesia to Sell 365D SVBI Bills
  • Bank Indonesia to Sell 183D SVBI Bills
  • MAS to Sell S$15.2 Billion 28-Day Bills on June 10
  • MAS to Sell S$1.6 Billion 255-Day Bills on June 10
  • MAS to Sell S$22.6 Billion 84-Day Bills on June 10
  • Taiwan to Sell NT$30 Billion 10-Year Bonds
  • Philippines To Sell PHP 30.0Bln 2032 Bonds (PIBD1032I695*)
  • Indonesia To Sell 2029 Sukuk Bonds (PBSG001)
  • Indonesia To Sell 2028 Sukuk Bonds (PBS030)
  • Indonesia To Sell 2027 Sukuk Bonds (PBS003)
  • Indonesia To Sell 179D Sukuk Bills (SPNS08122025)
  • Indonesia To Sell 2039 Sukuk Bonds (PBS034)
  • Indonesia To Sell 2049 Sukuk Bonds (PBS038)
  • Indonesia To Sell 270D Sukuk Bills (SPNS09032026)