NZD: NZDUSD - First Support Holds

TYM5 is 111-13, +0-06 from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session. 

• According to MNI’s technicals team, TYM5 remains well off the initial technical resistance of 111-22.5 (today's intraday high) -- next resistance above at 112-01 (High Mar 4 and a bull trigger).
• Cash US tsys finished the NY session modestly richer but mid-range, with the 10-year yield 4bps lower at 4.21% and the 2-year at 3.89%, -3bps.
• Month/quarter end rebalancing flow tempered Monday morning's risk-off support ahead of Wednesday's US tariff deadline. US tsys had jumped early in yesterday’s Asia-Pac session as investors became increasingly anxious about President Donald Trump's expected trade tariff announcements and an economic slowdown.
• Multiple reports suggested that Trump may be pressing his team to devise an aggressive 'Liberation Day' tariff plan that applies to more countries than anticipated. US stocks opened broadly weaker but recovered amid month-end positioning, trade desks said.
• There was little reaction to slightly higher-than-expected Chicago PMI data, with the barometer advancing 2.1 points to 47.6 in March. This is the third consecutive monthly gain, taking the index to its highest level since November 2023, though it remains in contractionary territory for the sixteenth successive month.
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The NZ Treasury announces the launch of the syndicated tap of the 2.00% 15 May 2032 bond. 

• The Treasury expects to issue at least NZ$3.0bn and will be capped at NZ$4.0bn. Initial price guidance is 14 to 17bps over the 15 May 2031 nominal bond.
• The issue will be priced tomorrow, and further issuance of the bond will not occur prior to July 2025.
• ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited; Bank of New Zealand; Citigroup Global Markets Limited; and Westpac Banking Corporation, New Zealand are Joint-Lead Managers for the issue.

In local morning trade, NZGBs are 2bps cheaper, with the NZ-US 10-year yield differential 3bps wider at +31bps, after US tsys finish the NY session modestly richer but mid-range.

• Month/quarter-end rebalancing flow tempered Monday morning's risk-off support ahead of Wednesday's US tariff deadline.
• Multiple reports suggested that Trump may be pressing his team to devise an aggressive 'Liberation Day' tariff plan that applies to more countries than anticipated. US stocks opened broadly weaker but recovered amid month-end positioning, trade desks said.
• There was little reaction to the slightly higher-than-expected Chicago PMI data, with the barometer advancing 2.1 points to 47.6 in March.
• Little news from late session Fed speakers Williams and Barkin: "We need an open mind about how long tariff impacts last," Williams said, while "to cut rates, we got to have confidence in inflation."
• The RBNZ board is currently preparing a recommendation for the appointment of a governor for a six-month term and will be submitting it to the minister shortly. - [RTRS]
• Swap rates are 1-2bps higher.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed. 24bps of easing is priced for April, with a cumulative 70bps by November 2025.
• Today, the local calendar will be empty, ahead of Building Permits on Wednesday.