NZD: NZD/USD - Consolidates On A 0.6000 Handle
Jul-03 22:31
The NZD/USD had a range overnight of 0.6030 - 0.6082, Asia is trading around 0.6070. The NZD/USD dropped almost 50 points in reaction to the better NFP print, but almost just as quickly retraced most of its losses. With US yields surging higher and staying there the USD’s inability to hold onto any gains is a worrying sign for the currency, especially when positioning is supposedly all the same way and at extreme levels. NZD/USD continues its attempt to build a solid base from which to push higher.
- Bloomberg - “Donald Trump won final passage of his signature $3.4 trillion tax and spending bill on a 218-214 vote in the House, after a bruising campaign to satisfy conservative Republicans. ”
- Bloomberg - “Scott Bessent says President Trump will decide whether to extend talks with trading partners past the July 9 deadline for higher tariff rates to kick back in.”
- A huge bounce from sub 0.5900 and the NZD has now established a foothold above 0.6000, with the USD breaking lower the NZD/USD looks to be building for a potential break higher of its own. A clear break of 0.6100 could provide the momentum to begin a larger move higher, initially targeting the 0.6400/0.6500 area. First support is now back towards the 0.6000 area.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6075(NZD519m July 9).
- Data/Event : Cotality Home Value
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NZD: NZD/USD - Finds Demand Just Below 0.6000
Jun-03 22:31
The NZD had a range overnight of 0.5988 - 0.6012, Asia is trading around 0.6000. The NZD has found some demand just below the 0.6000 area as the US stock market pushed higher again, and the USD bounced.
- Milk Price Auction Sees Second Consecutive Drop : Overnight, the fortnightly whole milk powder auction saw prices fall a further 3.7% versus the prior result. From $4332, we are now back at $4173. This is the second consecutive decline for the auction result, but by recent standards we are still elevated from an historical standpoint.
- Bloomberg - “Donald Trump signed a directive formally raising steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% from 25% as of June 4, the White House said. Scott Bessent said Beijing has a choice on whether it’s a dependable partner, reiterating that China must shift to a more consumption-led economy.”
- The NZD held up ok with demand seen just below 0.6000, this while the USD continued to retrace higher overnight. Can it have another look back above 0.6050 this week, or will the market wait to first see what NFP has to say.
- The support back towards 0.5850 has held very well, and while this continues to hold expect buyers to be around on dips. A clear break above 0.6050 is needed to provide the spark for the next leg higher.
- CFTC Data showed Asset managers maintaining their shorts, while the leveraged community pared back only a little of the decent short they had initiated the week before.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.5900(NZD401m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5990(NZD390m June 5), 0.5895(NZD305m June 5)
Data/Event : Cotality Home Value
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today
Jun-03 22:26
- Bank of Korea to Sell KRW2 tn 2-Year Bonds
- South Korea to Sell KRW5.6 tn 30-Year Bonds
- Thailand to Sell THB15 Bn of 2040 Bonds
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 365D SUVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 30D SUVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 92D SUVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 183D SUVBI Bills
- Bank Indonesia to Sell 273D SUVBI Bills
- Thailand to Sell THB30 Bn of 2028 Bonds
- China to Sell CNY105 Bn of 2032 Bonds
- China to Sell CNY40 Bn of 63-Day Bills
- China to Sell CNY40 Bn of 91-Day Bills
- China to Sell CNY40 Bn of 28-Day Bills
- Vietnam To Sell VND 2.0Tln 2040 Bonds; (TD2540037)
- Vietnam To Sell VND 0.5Tln 2030 Bonds; (TD2530009)
- Vietnam To Sell VND 0.5Tln 2055 Bonds; (TD2555052)
- Vietnam To Sell VND 7.0Tln 2035 Bonds; (TD2535023)
- India to Sell INR50 Bn of 364-Day Bills
- India to Sell INR90 Bn of 91-Day Bills
- India to Sell INR50 Bn of 182-Day Bills
- South Korea to Sell KRW2 tn of 63-Day Financial Bills
ASIA: Coming Up in Asia Today
Jun-03 22:25
| 1800GMT | 0700HKT | 0900AEDT | South Korea CPI MoM MAY |
| 1800GMT | 0700HKT | 0900AEDT | South Korea CPI YoY MAY |
| 1800GMT | 0700HKT | 0900AEDT | South Korea CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY |
| 1930GMT | 0830HKT | 1030AEDT | S&P Global Hong Kong PMI MAY |
| 1930GMT | 0830HKT | 1030AEDT | S&P Global Singapore PMI MAY |
| 0000GMT | 0830HKT | 1030AEDT | S&P Global Thailand PMI Mfg MAY |
| 0230GMT | 1300HKT | 1500AEDT | HSBC India PMI Composite MAY F |
| 0800GMT | 1300HKT | 1500AEDT | HSBC India PMI Services MAY F |
