SECURITY: NYT-Indian Official Confirms 3 Aircraft 'Crashed' As Tensions Escalate
NYT reports "One Indian official confirmed the crash of three aircraft, but cautioned that the reasons were not clear. Two other Indian security officials confirmed reports that some Indian aircraft had gone down, but would not elaborate on the details." This is seemingly the first (admittedly anonymous) confirmation from the Indian side that some of its jets were lost as part of the airstrikes against what India claims were terrorist targets in Pakistan linked to the attack that killed 26 civilians in Indian-administered Kashmir in late April.
- The situation remains tense, and although the market reaction has proved muted (see 'INR: Rupee Weakness Broadly Contained, Local Traders Warn Of Complacency', 1005BST), there is the notable risk of further escalation. Following a meeting of Pakistan's National Security Committee (NSC), chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the gov't claimed that it has right right to retaliate "at a time, place and manner of its choosing” in order to respond to the loss of life and 'violation' of Pakistan's sovereignty. The military has been "fully authorised" to carry out "corresponding actions".
- Global powers and allies of both India and Pakistan have called for cool heads to prevail. China, an ally of Pakistan and strategic competitor to India in Asia, expressed "regret" over the Indian airstrikes. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot called for both sides to "exercise restraint". The Russian Foreign Ministry has said it is 'deeply concerned' over the escalating military action.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Needle In Gold Points North
- On the commodity front, the trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the latest pull back - for now - appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA. The next key support to watch lies at 2943.78, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3196.2, a 3.236 projection of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing. The bull trigger is 3167.8, the Apr 3 high.
- In the oil space, the impulsive sell-off in WTI futures continues to accelerate and last week’s move down resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels. The break reinforces a bearish threat and, despite being in oversold territory, signals scope for a continuation of the bear leg. Sights are on $57.79 next, a 2.236 projection of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing. Initial resistance is seen at $64.85, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
US TSYS: Reversal Of Large Overnight Rally
- Treasuries sit twist steeper after a paring or full reversal of large overnight gains as equities lift off lows, helped in part by Italy Finance Minister Tajani pointing to a potential delay in EU tariff retaliation.
- A light docket sees tariff and broader-US policy headlines firmly in the driving seat.
- Cash yields are 4bp lower (2s) to 5bp higher (20s/30s), pivoting at 7s.
- 2s10s at 41.1bp (+6bp) has retreated from ~45bp for fresh highs since May 2022.
- TYM5 is back little changed on the day at 113-02+ (+01) after a high of 114-10 almost immediately with the Asia open. It’s been another huge overnight session for overnight volumes, standing at 1.35mln.
- The impulsive bull cycle has continued to punch through resistance levels, with 114-10 now latest resistance before 114-16 (Fibo projection of the Jan-Feb price swing). There is a sizeable gap to support at 112-01 (Mar 4 high and recent breakout level).
- Data: Consumer credit Feb (1500ET)
- Fedspeak: Kugler (1030ET)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $76B 13W, $68B 26W bill auctions (1130ET), US Tsy $50B 14D CMB (1300ET)
STIR: Mix Of Long Setting & Short Cover In SOFR Futures On Friday
OI data points to a mix of net short cover and long setting in SOFR futures during Friday’s rally, with the former dominating in the whites and the latter dominating in the reds, blues and greens.
| 04-Apr-25 | 03-Apr-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRH5 | 1,113,707 | 1,113,685 | +22 | Whites | -46,791 |
SFRM5 | 1,209,477 | 1,278,646 | -69,169 | Reds | +37,049 |
SFRU5 | 970,896 | 943,464 | +27,432 | Greens | +37,857 |
SFRZ5 | 1,125,770 | 1,130,846 | -5,076 | Blues | +19,648 |
SFRH6 | 655,627 | 643,801 | +11,826 |
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SFRM6 | 681,517 | 684,435 | -2,918 |
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SFRU6 | 646,046 | 638,290 | +7,756 |
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SFRZ6 | 836,838 | 816,453 | +20,385 |
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SFRH7 | 520,869 | 511,819 | +9,050 |
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SFRM7 | 526,968 | 501,597 | +25,371 |
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SFRU7 | 320,381 | 318,096 | +2,285 |
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SFRZ7 | 438,727 | 437,576 | +1,151 |
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SFRH8 | 249,718 | 235,355 | +14,363 |
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SFRM8 | 202,865 | 191,376 | +11,489 |
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SFRU8 | 140,361 | 138,268 | +2,093 |
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SFRZ8 | 149,523 | 157,820 | -8,297 |
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