FED: NY's Williams Signals Little "Urgency" For January Cut After Messy Data

The prospect for an expedited BoE easing cycle, the Chancellor’s apparent focus on hiking smaller taxes (where takings are more volatile than the “big 3”) and questions surrounding the leadership of the Labour Party point to ongoing steepening risks for the UK curve.

• This comes after questions surrounding the future of PM Starmer (any potential ousting could result in a meaningful change of fiscal policy alongside increased political risk premium) and Chancellor Reeves’ apparent u-turn when it comes to income tax rate hikes (along with suggestions that she is looking to shield small businesses from tax rises) have driven much of the steepening seen month-to-date.
• 2s10s trades at the highest level seen since early September, last 78bp. Next area of upside interest is located at the September year-to-date closing high (81.63bp).
• 5s30s is threatening a clean break above the September 19 closing high (142.55bp). A move through there would target the cycle closing high (151.97bp).
• The UK Budget (due next Wednesday) presents the key short-term risk event.

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• President Donald Trump will deliver remarks to the US-Saudi investment forum at 12:00 ET 17:00 GMT.
• Trump designated Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally, greenlit the sale of F-35 fighter planes, and struck deals on civilian nuclear energy, critical minerals, and technology with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman.
• Trump told reporters he thinks he already knows who he will nominate to replace Jerome Powell as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, appearing to rule out an unconventional selection.
• The US and Russia are reportedly working on a new plan to end the war in Ukraine. A high-ranking delegation of US military officials is expected to discuss the plan with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv today. Trump administration officials suggested to reporters that Kyiv may be forced to swallow an unfavourable ceasefire deal due to battlefield pressure and a domestic corruption scandal.
• The House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly 427-1 to force the Department of Justice to release files related to Jeffrey Epstein. The episode, along with several other recent displays of Republican dissent, has led some observers to question whether this is the beginning of Trump’s ‘lame duck’ period.
• Trump’s efforts to rewrite Congressional maps in red states to gain an edge in the 2026 midterm elections took a hit in Texas yesterday.
• Poll of the Day: A special election in Tennessee will provide a temperature check on the electorate ahead of the midterms.

Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF