FED: NY Fed To Buy $55B Of Bills Over The Next Month

From our FAQs on the post-shutdown data deluge (PDF here)

What data has been postponed, and will postponements continue to be made after the shutdown?

• We assume that federal agencies will fully re-open on Thursday November 14.
• The only real historical analogue to the current situation is the 2013 shutdown which lasted from Oct 1 through Oct 16. That was only a little over 2 weeks compared with the roughly 6 weeks in the current shutdown, and even so it caused multiple data release postponements and even cancellations that reverberated through December.
• Our PDF includes an appendix of the key federal government data points that were postponed from their original release dates in October through the end of this week (we don’t expect any data to be released as scheduled by this Friday).
• In 2013, knock-on effects kept hitting for weeks and months after the shutdown ended, with November releases being postponed. That will be worse this time. It probably increases the probability we will get “doubled-up” releases, certainly for Census Bureau numbers as was the case in 2013, but this time given the logjam it could force combined releases for data points by the BLS too.

When will updated data release schedules be available?

• In October 2013’s shutdown, then-President Obama signed the re-opening bill late Wednesday Oct 16. Federal employees went "back to work" Thursday Oct 17 and on that day, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a schedule for postponed and upcoming data releases: we publish the major postponements published by the BLS in an appendix below.
• Almost every data point was postponed, even those due out in November, as the BLS attempted to work through the backlog and collect underlying data.  The BLS's first post-shutdown release was Oct 21, which was the following Monday. September Nonfarm Payrolls, which were due out Oct 4, were released Oct 22.
• The BEA and Census Bureau weren't able to come up with a new release schedule until Tuesday Oct 21. BEA is in a relatively tougher spot because it needs data inputs from other federal agencies (including Census Bureau and BLS) for key data points including PCE and GDP, both of which were due to see the latest updates in late October.
• We would expect a similar schedule this time assuming funding is restored by late Wednesday, with BLS able to update on Thursday or at latest Friday on its updated schedule but the BEA and Census Bureau to follow behind by a few days.
• However there will be ongoing assessments as agency workers determine what they are and are not able to compile, so this will be a process, rather than an all-at-once release.

• RES 4: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing  
• RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 178.82 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 178.54 @ 16:29 GMT Nov 11 
• SUP 1: 175.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 174.82 Low Oct 17 
• SUP 3: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• SUP 4: 173.88 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low  

The trend in EURJPY remains bullish and a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent gains signal scope for 178.94 next, a 1.236 projection of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 175.40. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.    

SOFR & Treasury options shifted to low delta call buying - particularly in Jan'26 10Y calls after a slow start to the session. Underlying futures extended highs after the ADP showed a decline in jobs - futures holding narrow range since late morning, while projected rate cut hold firmer vs late Monday levels (*): Dec'25 at -16.8bp (-15.5bp), Jan'26 at -27.1bp (-25.1bp), Mar'26 at -38.3bp (-35.2bp), Apr'26 at -44.9bp (-41.3bp).

• SOFR Options: (Note Nov options expire Friday)
  • Update, over +25,000 SFRF6 96.62/96.75/97.00 2x3x1 call flys, 2.25-2.75 vs. 96.435/0.09%
  • +10,000 SFRZ5 96.31 calls, 3.5 ref 96.245
  • +4,000 SFRF6 96.43/96.62/96.75 call flys, 3.5
  • +10,000 0QZ5 97.00/97.25 call spds, 5.25 ref 96.905
  • -5,250 0QZ5 96.93/97.06 call spds, 4.0
  • -3,000 SFRX5 96.50 calls, 1.5 ref 96.25
  • +4,000 SFRZ5 96.43/96.50, 0.5 vs. 96.28/0.05%
  • Block, +5,000 0QH6 96.25/96.50 put spds, 3.5 ref 96.895
  • 1,300 SFRX5 96.18/96.25 box
  • Block, -10,000 SFRZ5 96.50/96.62 call spds, 0.25
  • Block/screen, 4,000 SFRG6 96.68/96.81/96.87/97.00 call condors, 0.75
  • 4,000 SFRZ5 96.37/96.56 call spds vs. SFRF6 96.56/96.75 call spds, 2.5 net/Jan bought over
  • +4,000 SFRZ6 96.12/96.50/96.75 broken put flys, 2.5
  • -2,000 SFRX5 96.18/96.31 strangles, 0.5
  • 9,350 SFRX 96.18 puts, .25-0.50 total volume over 17,500
  • over 8,300 SFRX5 96.25 puts
  • -6,500 SFRZ5 96.43/96.68 call spds, 0.25-0.50
• Treasury Options:
  • 2,000 USZ5 120/122 call spds 4
  • 6,100 TYZ5 117.5/120 1x2 call spds ref 113-00
  • Update over +117,000 TYF6 114 calls, 29 vs. 112-30.5 to -31.5/0.30% (open interest 51,680)
  • 1,000 TUZ5 104.5/104.62 1x2 call spds
  • 2,000 FVZ5 109.75/110/110.5/110.75 call flys ref 109-14
  • 1,250 TYZ5/TYF6 115 call calendar spds
  • 2,000 TYZ5 111.5/112 put spds, 1
  • -3,500 TYZ5 112.75 calls, 24 vs. 112-23.5/0.47%
  • +2,500 Wednesday weekly TY 112.5 puts, 1 vs. 112-26/0.28%
  • +2,500 Wednesday weekly TY 112.75 calls, 21 vs. 112-24/0.45%