EU CREDIT SUPPLY: NWG €B'mark 3Y FRN - Final Spread

SX7E (19th Sep) 160/155/150p fly, bought for 0.20 in 6k.

• On the commodity front, Gold is trading higher today. Recent weakness appears to have been a correction. The yellow metal breached the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would highlight a deeper retracement and open the 50-day EMA, at 3115.11 - a key support. The primary trend direction remains up. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3500.1, the Apr 22 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level resumes the uptrend.
• In the oil space, a medium-term bearish trend in WTI futures remains intact and last week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The move down signals the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. The correction allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Attention is on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open $53.72, a 2.236 projection of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing. Resistance to watch is $64.61, the 50-day EMA. Initial resistance is $61.94, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 113-22   1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 22 price swing 
• RES 3: 113-04   76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
• RES 2: 112-20+ High MAy 1 and key new-term resistance
• RES 1: 112-01+ High Apr 2
• PRICE:‌‌ 111-07+ @ 11:36 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 111-02   Low Mar 2 / 50-dma
• SUP 2: 110-30+ 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 110-16+/109-08 Low Apr 22 / 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 108-26+ 76.4% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 7 bull cycle

A sharp reversal lower in Treasury futures last week undermines the recent bull cycle. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA, and sights are on support at the 50-day EMA, at 110-30+. A clear breach of this average would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 110-16+, the Apr 22 low. For bulls, price needs to trade above key short-term resistance at 112-20+, the May 1 high, to reinstate a bullish theme.