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STIR: April ECB Cut Now Essentially Fully Priced In OIS
The ESTR-OIS implied probability of a 25bp ECB cut next Thursday has increased to ~95%, from ~85% at Friday’s close, with the US administration’s hard-line stance around last week’s tariff announcements sparking renewed concerns around global growth prospects.
- OIS price 83bps of easing through year-end, ~7bps more dovish than yesterday’s close.
- Euribor futures are +0.5 to +6.0 ticks through the blues versus Friday’s settlement.
- In an interview with the FT released this morning, Bank of Greece Governor Stournaras warned that US tariffs risk triggering a large “negative demand shock”. This dovish interpretation of the risks posed by US trade policies is in line with his usual stance.
- Over the weekend, Schnabel noted that Euro are inflation is on track to reach the 2% target, and that “as of today, we are on track towards a soft landing”.
- This morning’s German February IP data was a little weaker than expected, while import and export growth were stronger than expected. However, these statistics (alongside this morning’s retail sales report due at 1000BST) are more stale than usual stale given the latest US tariff developments.
- That may place a little more emphasis on the April Sentix survey at 0930BST (exp -9.0 vs -2.9 prior), though it isn’t usually a market mover.
- The dovish Cipollone speaks at 10:45BST.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Apr-25 | 2.176 | -23.9 |
| Jun-25 | 1.955 | -46.0 |
| Jul-25 | 1.836 | -57.9 |
| Sep-25 | 1.711 | -70.4 |
| Oct-25 | 1.658 | -75.7 |
| Dec-25 | 1.586 | -82.9 |
| Feb-26 | 1.569 | -84.6 |
| Mar-26 | 1.558 | -85.7 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
EURJPY TECHS: Retracement Mode
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 161.39/164.19 20-day EMA / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 159.87 @ 07:51 GMT Apr 7
- SUP 1: 158.30 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4
- SUP 4: 154.80 Low Low Feb 28
EURJPY is trading in a volatile manner. The latest pullback still appears corrective, however, following recent weakness, a deeper retracement is likely. The 61.8% retracement point of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle, at 158.39, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would open 157.02, the 76.4% retracement level. Initial resistance to watch is 161.39, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is 164.19, the Mar 18 high.
CHINA STOCKS: Chinese Sov Fund Confirms It Has Added To Equity ETF Holdings
China's Central Huijin Fund has confirmed that it has added to its equity ETF holdings and vows to increase those holdings, looking to promote smooth operation in markets. No immediate reaction in benchmark Chinese proxies traded in Hong Kong, with the recovery from loves tepid at best.
