EU HEALTHCARE: NOVO NORDISK: €4bn Six Part

Equity Option Expiry in Notional Term for Friday:

US: 

• SPX: $1.61T vs $1.53T (Yesterday).
• NDX: $68.28bn vs $61.97bn.
• Amazon: $18.55bn vs $15.78bn.
• Apple: $17.82bn vs $17.29bn.

EU/UK:

• SX5E: €118.67bn vs €117.58bn.
• SX7E: €10..54bn vs €10.55bn.
• DAX: €17.80bn vs €17.46bn.
• FTSE: £9.60bn vs £9.23bn.

At around 17:30 ET 22:30 BST, the Senate will hold an eighth, almost certainly doomed, vote on the House-passed government funding bill. The House remains out of session with no sign of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) bringing lawmakers back.

• Key Dates: Oct. 14: Air traffic controllers miss first paycheck, Oct. 15: Troops miss first paycheck, Oct. 15: September CPI delayed, Oct. 24: Federal employees miss first full paycheck, Nov. 1: Possible lapse in WIC nutrition assistance, Nov. 1: Open enrolment for ACA, Nov. 2: Possible disruptions to SNAP, Nov. 5: Shutdown will become the longest ever
• The White House is taking steps to derrisk these pressure points, ordering the Pentagon to secure funds to pay troops and is “working on ways” to get paychecks to federal law-enforcement officers, per Punchbowl.
• Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration is looking to tap tariff revenue to ensure SNAP payments continue. An OMB official said, “OMB is making every preparation to batten down the hatches and ride out the Democrats’ intransigence. Pay the troops, pay law enforcement, continue the RIFs, and wait.” Note: ‘RIF’ refers to OMB ‘Reduction in Forces’ notices, directing agencies to lay off workers.
• Offramp? Politico reports, “There are new signs Republicans are preparing for negotiations on the Obamacare subsidies. Some in the circle of House GOP leadership are having early, informal conversations with officials from the White House to develop a framework for a deal.”

Figure 1: How long will the government shutdown last?

 Source: Kalshi

• STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
  • Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.10% (+0.00), volume: $87B
  • Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.10% (+0.00), volume: $174B
• US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates
  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.15% (+0.02), volume: $2.895T
  • Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.12% (+0.02), volume: $1.138T
  • Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.12% (+0.02), volume: $1.110T
  • (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)