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Trading houses have warned that the oil market may be overly complacent towards geopolitical risk to oil supply in 2026.

• Speaking on a panel at the Energy Intelligence Forum, Torbjorn Tornqvist, CEO at Gunvor said there was possibly a bit of complacency on the geopolitical risk side for oil, with crude no longer carrying a significant geopolitical risk premium.
• Likewise, Trafigura’s Global Head of the Oil Ben Lobuck commented that the current decline of Brent prices to around $62/b is a result of the geopolitical concerns abating, with prices likely to go even lower.
• However, the risk of future spikes driven by supply security remains with Vitol’s CEO Russel Hardy commenting that the market is likely overly discounting chance of supply side events for next year.
• According to Hardy, the market now sees itself as better placed to weather the storm of any political shocks, having shrugged of a range of security issues in Q2.
• A lack of long-term disruption during earlier flare ups means that the market now sees little risk to Iranian output, and while Ukraine’s drone attacks are getting more precise, they are hitting Russian domestic supply rather than crude, Gunvor’s Tornqvist noted
• While current sentiment may be eschewing concerns for geopolitical related supply disruption. The Vitol CEO noted that key flashpoints represent significant production centres.
• “Whether it’s Iran, Russia, or Venezuela, they are big producers,” Hardy warned.  Disruption to output in just one of these risk zones could see prices rise above those currently forecasted.
• “When a market gets wrong footed, that’s when it [oil market] gets punished price wise,” Gunvor’s Tornqvist cautioned