UK FISCAL: November (or December) Budget?
Aug-28 13:36
- At the beginning of July we set out our expectations for the date of the Budget, noting that we thought that 5 November was the most likely date. Given that the OBR requires 10 weeks notice from the Chancellor to prepare its forecast, unless it has been informed of the date privately, 10 weeks notice would have had to have been given yesterday.
- As we have moved into a November / December Budget looking probable, there will be no further constraints from CPI (September figures used to uprate benefits), party conferences or parliamentary recesses etc.
- We still assume that the Budget will take place on a Wednesday which would make 12 November the earliest potential date (and the date could be announced after parliament returns from recess next week).
- This means that it would be later than the November MPC meeting and MPR release – and in our view keeps a potential December cut on the table.
- There is nothing really to stop the Budget being later in the year either. For example, in 2020 the Autumn Statement was held on 25 November. Between 2012-14 Autumn Statements were held between 2-5 December. These are the latest to be held over the past 15 years.
- Realistically this makes 17 December the last possible date.
- The next DMO consultation to discuss FQ4 (Jan-Mar) issuance is currently pencilled in for Monday 24 November, but the DMO has already noted that this is subject to scheduling around the Budget.
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