SWEDEN: November Flash Inflation Due At 0700GMT, Another Dec Rate Path Input

Spain, Belgium, the ESM and the EU are still scheduled to sell bills this week, while Germany, the Netherlands and France have already come to the market. We expect issuance to be E27.4bln in first round operations, up from E13.9bln last week.

• This morning, Spain will look to sell a combined E4.5-5.5bln of the 6-month May 8, 2026 letras and the new 12-month Nov 6, 2026 letras
• Also this morning, Belgium will look to issue a combined E2.0-2.4bln of TCs: An indicative E800mln of the Feb 12, 2026 TC, an indicative E800mln of the May 14, 2026 TC and an indicative E800mln of the Oct 15, 2026 TC.
• Finally today, the ESM will look to come to the market with up to E1.1bln of the new 3-month Feb 5, 2026 bills.
• To conclude issuance for the week tomorrow, the EU will look to sell up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Feb 6, 2026 EU-bill, up to E1.0bln of the 6-month May 8, 2026 EU-bill and up to E1.5bln of the new 12-month Nov 6, 2026 EU-bill.

• RES 4: 0.8865 1.764 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing  
• RES 3: 0.8848 1.618 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing  
• RES 2: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
• RES 1: 0.8818 High Oct 29
• PRICE: 0.8781 @ 06:40 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25  
• SUP 2: 0.8733 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8702 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

A bull cycle in EURGBP remains intact. The break last week of resistance at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high and a bull trigger, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 0.8835, the May 3 2023 high. Initial support lies at 0.8751, the Sep 25 high. Note that the trend is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective.

• RES 4: 107.348 50.0% retracement of Apr 7 - Sep 25 bear leg (cont) 
• RES 3: 107.320 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 107.235 High Oct 22 
• RES 1: 107.104/175 50-day EMA / High Oct 24   
• PRICE: 107.045 @ 06:14 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 107.010 Low Oct 30  
• SUP 2: 106.995 Low  Oct 8   
• SUP 3: 106.965 Low Oct 6
• SUP 4: 106.920 Low Sep 25 and a key support  

A short-term bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact - for now. The current bear cycle that started Oct 17 is considered corrective and is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Note that 107.014, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 - Oct 17 bull leg and the next important support, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial resistance is at 107.104, the 50-day EMA.