ARGENTINA: November Economic Activity Due, Consumer Confidence
Jan-23 12:27
- Economic activity figures for November will be released at 1900GMT(1400ET), with analysts expecting the economy to have grown by another 0.4% m/m, after a 0.6% gain in October. In annual terms, growth is seen improving marginally to -0.5% y/y, from -0.7%. Separately, January consumer confidence figures are also due today. In December, confidence rose to its highest level in 13 months.
- Nov. Economic Activity Index YoY, est. -0.5%, prior -0.7%
- Nov. Economic Activity Index MoM est. 0.4%, prior 0.6%
- Meanwhile, President Milei remains at the World Economic Forum in Davos today, where he has delivered a speech. In an interview there yesterday, he said that Argentina’s capital controls could be lifted more quickly, if the government secures new funding amid ongoing talks with IMF staff this week on a new loan programme. Milei added that his administration could tap capital markets, right after lifting the controls.
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US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: Jan'25 10Y Puts
Dec-24 12:21
- 6,000 TYF5 108.5 puts, 13 ref 108-15 at 0703:22ET.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points South
Dec-24 12:02
- RES 4: 112-02 Low Oct 14
- RES 3: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 110-28 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 110-03+ 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 108-23 @ 11:59 GMT Dec 24
- SUP 1: 108-13+ Low Dec 24
- SUP 2: 108-12+ 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
- SUP 3: 108-00 1.500 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
- SUP 4: 107-19+ 1.618 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
The trend condition in Treasury futures remains bearish, confirmed by the return lower on December 24th. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective. Last week’s sell-off reinforces the current bear cycle. The contract has traded through key short-term support and the bear trigger at 109-02+, the Nov 15 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 108+12+, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 110-03+, the 20-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Regional Fed Mfg, Tsy 2Y FRN & 5Y Note Sales
Dec-24 12:01
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Dec-24 0830 Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity (-5.9, --)
- Dec-24 1000 Richmond Fed Mfg Index (-14, -10)
- Dec-24 1000 Richmond Fed Business Conditions (10, --)
- Dec-24 1130 US Tsy $28B 2Y FRN & $70B 5Y Note auctions
