EU FINANCIALS: Nova Ljubljanska Banka: Q2 25 Results
(NOVALJ; NR/BBB+/NR) Credit positive. Top and bottom line beats. Good non-interest income growth. ...
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US TSY FUTURES: Mix Of Net Short Setting & Long Cover Either Side Of Weekend
OI data points to net short setting in the wings (TU, US & WN) between Thursday and Monday settlements (no settlement Friday, owing to the observance of the Independence Day holiday), while net long cover was seen in the intermediates (FV, TY & UXY).
| 07-Jul-25 | 03-Jul-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,284,274 | 4,277,341 | +6,933 | +264,155 |
FV | 7,036,363 | 7,048,798 | -12,435 | -535,942 |
TY | 4,933,016 | 4,946,323 | -13,307 | -876,149 |
UXY | 2,420,723 | 2,421,521 | -798 | -69,289 |
US | 1,834,778 | 1,819,854 | +14,924 | +2,039,424 |
WN | 1,957,701 | 1,954,856 | +2,845 | +512,560 |
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| Total | -1,838 | +1,334,760 |
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Monitoring Support In GBPUSD
- In FX, the trend condition in EURUSD is unchanged, signals remain bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, this continues to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. Note that corrections have been shallow. This also reinforces the trend condition. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb to 1.1851, the Sep 10 2021 high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 1.1637, the 20-day EMA.
- A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and recent weakness appears corrective. Support to watch is 1.3602, the 20-day EMA (pierced). A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper correction towards the 50-day EMA at 1.3468. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.3789, the Jul 1 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, suggesting the M/T uptrend is intact.
- USDJPY traded higher Monday. The recovery has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, at 144.95, and the daily close above the EMA highlights a stronger reversal. 146.19, the Jun 24 high, has been pierced. An extension would open 146.77 next, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Jul 1 bear leg. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, signalling a dominant medium-term downtrend. First support to watch lies at 144.23, the Jun 7 low.
SONIA: Ratio Put vs Call
SFIZ5 96.15p x2 vs 96.50c x1, sold the Call at -2.75 in 4k.
