NATGAS: Nov. Capacity Bookings Suggest Stable Gas Imports to Ukraine
November transmission capacity bookings point to stable gas import flows to Ukraine despite ongoing Russian strikes, according to Kpler.
- Hungary remains the main entry point, backed by strong demand and pricing. Poland offers flexibility, and Slovakia acts as a balancing route. Ukraine imports about 24mcm of gas daily, including more than 10 mcm from Poland, about 10 mcm from Hungary and more than 4 mcm from Slovakia.
- Ukraine will resume importing gas from Greece via the Transbalkan pipeline in November, ExPro consultancy said. Route 1 saw its first auction success, signalling a new supply dynamic, Kpler said.
- DTEK and Swiss Axpo Trading booked 0.6mcm/d of capacities to import gas from Greece, Reuters said. Tariff reductions by Moldovan and Romanian operators helped booking capacities in November.
- Russian strikes on Ukraine’s gas sector in October, have cut 55% of domestic gas production and the country now replies on additional of gas this winter.
- Ukraine needs about 4 bcm of gas imports this winter, though it shouldn’t have a significant impact on European fuel prices, according to Maxim Timchenko, CEO of DTEK, cited by Bloomberg.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday that Ukraine had the funds to buy 70% of the natural gas imports it needs this winter.
Source: Kpler
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OPTIONS: Expiries for Oct02 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.1580(E1.0bln), $1.1615-30(E1.6bln), $1.1675-80(E950mln), $1.1695-00(E1.6bln), $1.1720-25(E964mln), $1.1750(E1.2bln), $1.1785-90(E2.9bln), $1.1850(E760mln), $1.1900(E950mln)
- USD/JPY: Y147.95-00($1.6bln), Y149.50($1.0bln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6600(A$1.9bln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3900($777mln)
FED: Gov Cook To Stay In Post Until At Least January Supreme Court Arguments
The Supreme Court files a notice in "TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF U.S., ET AL. V. COOK, LISA D." that Gov Cook will be allowed to stay in her position (and not "fired" by the White House) until at least an oral argument on the case is heard in January 2026: "The application for stay presented to The Chief Justice and by him referred to the Court is deferred pending oral argument in January 2026. The Clerk is directed to establish a briefing schedule for amici curiae and any supplemental briefs responding to amici."
FOREX: Options Show Markets Won't be Caught Offside on Budget Risk Again
Ahead of last year's Autumn Budget, markets underestimated the market-moving potential of Reeves' first fiscal event. While vols indicated a ~30 pip swing in EUR/GBP, price went on to rally near 150 pips in the next two sessions and even with two months until the event, shifts in option vol suggest markets won't be caught offside again.
- The front-end of the GBP vol curve provide a further signal for market concern over the Autumn Budget. The flatter front-end of the curve and the building premium for 2m implied vols shows markets building a risk premium into the event. 2m vols have posted the sharpest gains over the past week as they begin to capture the event on November 26th.
- This effect is particularly evident in EUR/GBP, for which markets continue to favour as a GBP weakness play given the unpredictability of the USD into year-end. This is despite sell-side pushing out expectations of BoE rate cuts this year (see Deutsche Bank, HSBC earlier this month) - an extension of which could work against the consensus view of EURGBP higher.
- We see sustainability of this week's GBP bounce as resting on the fiscal policy mix ahead. The Gilt curve and, in particular, the longer-end has regained a sense of stability after being marked sharply higher at the beginning of September. How valid and long-lasting this proves to be should determine GBP/USD's ability to hold above 1.3525 (50% mid-Sept downleg) and make meaningful headway toward the bull trigger of the July 1st high at 1.3789.
