FED: Notably Hawkish Opening Remarks from Powell

Oct-29 18:40
  • That's about as hawkish a message that Powell could have delivered in his opening statement.
  • On QT he says "signs have clearly emerged" that reserves are somewhat above "ample", warranting today's decision to end QT.
  • "In December, we'll enter the next phase of our normalization plans by holding the size of our balance sheet steady for a time, while reserve balances continue to move gradually lower as other non reserve liabilities, such as currency keep growing, we will continue to allow agency securities to run off our balance sheet and will reinvest the proceeds from those securities in treasury bills, furthering progress toward a portfolio consisting primarily of Treasury securities. This reinvestment strategy will also help move the weighted average maturity of our portfolio closer to that of the outstanding stock of Treasury securities, thus furthering the normalization of the composition of our balance sheet. "

Historical bullets

US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: IT & Materials Sector Shares Outperforming

Sep-29 18:38
  • Stocks have gradually recovered from early selling, the Nasdaq continues to outperform as Information Technology sector shares led gainers. Currently, the DJIA trades up 45.35 points (0.1%) at 46290.24, S&P E-Minis up 15.75 points (0.24%) at 6712, Nasdaq up 117 points (0.5%) at 22600.4.
  • Software and semiconductor makers continued to buoy the tech sector in the second half: Western Digital +7.63%, Seagate Technology +3.78%, Micron Technology+3.72%, Lam Research +2.56% and NVIDIA +2.28%.
  • Materials sector shares surged in the second half, leading gainers included: Freeport-McMoRan +5.31%, Air Products and Chemicals +1.96%, International Paper +1.24%, Amcor +1.18% and DuPont de Nemours +1.16%.
  • Declining crude prices (WTI -2.55 at 63.17) continued to weigh on the Energy sector shares in late trade, leading decliners include: Devon Energy -4.11%, Targa Resources -3.97%, Diamondback Energy -3.36% and ConocoPhillips -3.33%.
  • Meanwhile, the Consumer Staples sector shares decline accelerated in late trade: The Campbell's Company -3.37%, The Hershey Co -2.08%, Dollar Tree -1.83% and J M Smucker Co -1.74%.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

Sep-29 18:30
  • RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
  • RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28 
  • RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
  • RES 1: 149.96 High Sep 26   
  • PRICE: 148.61 @ 16:14 BST Sep 29
  • SUP 1: 148.38/147.55 High Sep 22 / 50-day EMA 
  • SUP 2: 146.77 Low Sep 18  
  • SUP 3: 145.49 Low Sep 17 and a pivot support
  • SUP 4: 144.23 Low Jul 7 

USDJPY traded higher last week  as the pair extended the recovery that started Sep 17. A bullish candle on Sep 17 - a hammer - provided an early reversal signal and remains valid. Also, MA studies remain in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend. 149.14, the Sep 3 high, has been cleared. Sights are on 150.92, the Aug 1 high and key resistance. Pivot support is 145.49, Sep 17 low. Short-term weakness is considered corrective.       

SOFR OPTIONS: Nov'25 SOFR Put Fly

Sep-29 18:21
  • +30,000 SFRX5 95.93/96.00/96.06 put flys, cab ref 96.29