ENERGY: Norway January Oil Output 2.6% Above Forecast but Gas 2.6% Below
Feb-20 08:40
Norway’s January oil output was above forecast but gas output was below the official forecast according to the Norwegian Offshore Directorate.
- Oil production edged down to 1.775mbpd in January from 1.7869mbpd in December but was 2.6% higher than the official forecast of 1.730mbpd. Oil, NGL and condensate production fell to 1.990mbpd from 2.025mbpd last month but above the forecast of 1.981mbpd by 0.5%.
- Natural gas production fell to 346.1mcm/d in January from 360.6mcm/d in December and was 2.6% below a forecast of 355.2mcm/d.
- The total petroleum production so far in 2025 is about 20.5mcm oil equivalents and 1.4mcm oil equivalents lower than January 2024.
Source: Norwegian Offshore Directorate
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EGB SYNDICATION: 5/15-year LITHUN EMTN: Guidance
Jan-21 08:40
- EUR Benchmark 5Y Fixed (Jan. 28, 2030) MS+70 Area
- Coupon: Annual, act/act ICMA
- EUR Benchmark 15Y Fixed (Jan. 28, 2040) MS+145 Area
- Coupon: Annual, act/act ICMA
- Issuer: Lithuania Government International Bond (LITHUN)
- Settlement: Jan. 28, 2025
- Bookrunners: BNPP (B&D), BofA, JPM
- Co-Lead (no books): SEB Lithuania
- Investor presentation.
- Timing: May price today.
Details as per Bloomberg
OPTIONS: Two-Way USD Risk, Duelling Tariff Headlines Trigger Sizeable Flow
Jan-21 08:35
- Yesterday's FX derivatives volumes were seriously impressive considering the US market holiday, with over $110bln notional crossing the DTCC thanks to the USD sell-off, with tariff target currencies (namely EUR, CAD and CNY) leading the way.
- While relief was evident in the spot rally for EUR, CAD and others - short-end vol markets have not followed, with USD risk reversals and butterfly vol holding at much more cautious levels, somewhat vindicated by the follow-up from Trump overnight and his warning of 25% tariffs on USMCA nations to combat migration flow.
- As such, while USD/CAD sold off on the initial memo headlines yesterday, net upside demand via options is still evident, tipping the put/call skew toward calls. Over $4bln notional has traded in calls with strikes at 1.45 or above, positions which will have benefited from the bounce off the 1.4262 low yesterday.
- This raises the risks around Canadian politics, and increases the importance of Trudeau's succession, with tariff strategy comments on the candidates' campaign trail likely market movers.
GILTS: Off Early Highs, Syndication Eyed
Jan-21 08:28
The early uptick in gilts fades, as participants assess the mixed labour market data (soft quantity readings vs. firmer-than-expected private wages) and the latest developments in the U.S. tariff playbook.
- Futures peaked at 91.79 before fading back to ~91.60.
- Initial resistance at the January 17 high (91.96) untested.
- That leaves the bearish technical trend intact in the contract, initial support at the January 16 low (90.68).
- Yields flat to 1bp lower.
- Spread to Bunds 1bp wider at 214bp.
- The DMO has released the minutes of yesterday's consultations with gilt market participants, details available in a previous bullet.
- BoE-dated OIS showing ~63bp of cuts through year-end, matching pre-gilt open levels, 1bp more dovish on the day.
- SONIA futures flat to +2.0, back from early highs.
- On the lookout for the syndicated tap of the 4.375% Jan-40 gilt. Bookrunners have indicated this will likely be today’s business, in line with our own expectation.
