US NATGAS: Northeast EOD – Forecasts Shed CDDs and Added HDDs
- Northeast demand is flat at 35.7 bcf/d, holding 1.9 bcf/d below the 30day average.
- To the east, compared to the previous GFS 15day forecast, NYC added 12 HDDs, for a total of 55 HDDs. This is 20 less than the 10yr normal.
- To the west, compared to the previous GFS 15day forecast, Columbus OH added 5 HDDs, for a total of 39 HDDs. This is 21 HDDs less than the 10yr normal.
- Within the region, total End User demand is flat at 12.4 bcf/d. Comprised of 29% power generation, 54% rescom, and 18% industrial.
- Net outflows from the region is unchanged at 19.48 bcf/d.
- Production in the region revised up 90 mmcf/d to 35.92 bcf/d, all in the Appalachian shale play.
- Exports to Canada are flat at 534 mmcf/d.
- Feedgas exports to Cove Point LNG are unchanged at 840 mmcf/d.
- This puts the daily supply surplus at around 0.2 bcf/d widening by 0.68 bcf/d on the day.
- The NE region refers to New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and Maryland. All flow and production data is from Bloomberg.
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TARIFFS: Trump-Netanyahu Joint Press Conference Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to hold a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. LIVESTREAM. Today's visit is Netanyahu's second since Trump took office in January.
- Haaretz speculates that the meeting is designed to give Trump a political win amid the fallout from his tariffs: "The planned meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday is unusual, not only because it was arranged last minute, but mainly due to the reversal of circumstances. It isn't Netanyahu who needs Trump this time, but rather Trump who needs Netanyahu."
- The New York Times notes: "Looming over the meeting this week is a point of tension: Mr. Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which did not spare Israel. Mr. Netanyahu’s office said the two men plan to discuss the tariff issue, the war in Gaza, Israel-Turkey relations, Iran and the International Criminal Court."
- Netanyahu said on the tariffs: “I can tell you that I am the first international leader, the first foreign leader, who will meet with President Trump on the issue, which is so important to the Israeli economy. There is a long line of leaders who want this regarding their economies. I think that it reflects the special personal link, as well as the special ties between the U.S. and Israel.”
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 151.30 High Mar 3
- RES 3: 150.43/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 149.12 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 148.18 Low Mar 20
- PRICE: 147.73 @ 16:50 BST Apr 7
- SUP 1: 144.56 Low Apr 4
- SUP 2: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
- SUP 3: 143.43 Low Oct 2 ‘24
- SUP 4: 142.95 1.00 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
USDJPY maintains a softer tone following last week’s sharp sell-off and is trading just ahead of its recent lows. A resumption of the downtrend and a break of Friday’s 144.56 low would signal scope for an extension towards 144.13, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 149.12, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would - for now - be considered corrective.
EURGBP TECHS: Clears Key Resistance
- RES 4: 0.8628 1.500 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8604 1.382 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 2: 0.8593 High Aug 14 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.8580 High Apr 7
- PRICE: 0.8571 @ 16:49 BST Apr 7
- SUP 1: 0.8432/0.8380 Low Apr 4 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key near-term support
- SUP 3: 0.8299 Low Mar 5
- SUP 4: 0.8251 Low Mar 4
EURGBP maintains a bullish tone. The latest rally has resulted in a break of key resistance at 0.8474, the Jan 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle highlights an important technical breach and strengthens a bullish condition. Sights are 0.8593 next, the Aug 14 ‘24 high. On the downside, firm support lies at 0.8380, the 20-day EMA. The contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind.
