US NATGAS: Northeast – Demand Fades on the Day, Down 5%

Forecast goes colder in the eastern half of the region in the 5-10 day period, and goes warmer in the western half for the 10-15 day period. Transco Z6 NY to EGT-SP spread could widen. 

• Northeast demand is currently at 36.4 bcf/d, down by around 1.6 bcf/d. Demand is 0.6 bcf/d below the 30-day average.
• To the east, compared to the previous GFS 15day forecast, NYC  added 12.4 HDDs, for a total of 189.21 HDDs. This is 27.7 greater than the 10yr normal.
• To the west, compared to the previous GFS 15day forecast, Columbus OH  lost 1 HDDs, for a total of 135.54 This is 123.1 HDDs less than the 10yr normal.
• Within the region, total End User demand is down 1.2 bcf/d, at 17.61 bcf/d. Comprised of 45% power generation, 39% rescom, and 16% industrial.
• Net outflows from the region are down 0.91 bcf/d to 14.35 bcf/d. Export flows to New England drop the most d/d on IGT: NY to CT down 300 mmcf/d, AGT: NY to CT down 170 mmcf/d, and TGP: NY to MA down 120 mmcf/d.
• Production in the region is around 35.6 bcf/d, down around 0.18 bcf/d on the day.
• Production from the Appalachia shale play is 35.02 bcf/d, down around 0.23 bcf/d on the day. This compares to a 30-day average of 35.85 bcf/d.
• Imports from Canada are up to around 209 mmcf/d today. This compares to net imports yesterday of 200 mmcf/d yesterday.
• Feedgas exports to Cove Point LNG are currently at 882 mmcf/d, up around 34 mmcf/d today. This is stronger than the 30-day average of 862 mmcf/d.
• This puts the daily supply deficit at around 0.11 bcf/d narrowing by 2.71 bcf/d on the day.
• The NE region refers to New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and Maryland. All flow and production data is from Bloomberg.