USDCAD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 1.3655 High May 26 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3585 High Jun 1
- RES 2: 1.3523 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jul 14 downleg
- RES 1: 1.3502 High Aug 8
- PRICE: 1.3412 @ 07:18 BST Aug 9
- SUP 1: 1.3364 Low Aug 8
- SUP 2: 1.3299/82 50- and 20-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3151 Low Jul 31
- SUP 4: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and a bear trigger
USDCAD short-term conditions remain bullish and the pair traded higher Tuesday. The rally resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at 1.3387, the Jul 7 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards 1.3523, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key support has been defined at 1.3093, the Jul 14 low. Initial support to watch is 1.3282, the 20-day EMA.
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STIR: SFRM4/U4 Flattener Flow
SFRM4/U4 ~7.9K given at -37.0
BUNDS: A Touch Cheaper Overnight
Bund futures leant on a downtick in e-minis/Euro STOXX 50 futures ahead of the old futures open, which allowed them to edge away from overnight lows, leaving the contract -20 or so at typing. The contract failed to threaten the boundaries of Friday’s range overnight. Spill over from light pressure for U.S. Tsys helped Bunds lower in Asia hours.
- Regional headline flow has been relatively limited over the weekend, with ECB’s Villeroy pushing the higher for longer narrative, while ECB’s Centeno stuck to his typically dovish leaning.
- The threat of relatively imminent Chinese CPI deflation was noted overnight, with the headline reading for June sitting at 0.0% Y/Y.
- That release led to worry re: domestic demand trimming a chunk of the early gains in mainland Chinese equities (with the early firming linked to the perceived end to the regulatory crackdown on big tech), although focus on stimulus remains evident and the data did nothing to dent expectations on that front.
- Comments from ECB’s Nagel & Herodotou headline the regional docket today, with nothing in the way of tier 1 data releases/bond supply scheduled at present.
EURNOK: EURNOK touches intraday low after inflation data
- EURNOK falls to its low of the day briefly following CPI-ATE rising 3 tenths to 7.0%Y/Y rather than falling 1 tenth as consensus expected.
- Briefly touches 11.6288 low of the day (from 11.685 pre-data). At time of writing retraced around half of that drop.
