USDCAD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 1.4000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 1.3970 3.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3896 3.00 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
- RES 1: 1.3833 High Sep 28
- PRICE: 1.3701 @ 15:49 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 1.3560/3468 Low Sep 26 / 23
- SUP 2: 1.3381 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3169 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.2954 Low Sep 13 and a key support
USDCAD traded higher Wednesday and a bullish theme remains intact. The recent extension reinforces the uptrend and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting current market sentiment. Sights are set on 1.3896 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support is at 1.3381, the 20-day EMA.
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USDCAD TECHS: Fourth Session of Higher Highs
- RES 4: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
- RES 3: 1.3267 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3141 High Aug 31
- PRICE: 1.3091 @ 16:52 BST Aug 31
- SUP 1: 1.2947 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2895 Low Aug 25 and key near-term support
- SUP 3: 1.2828 Low Aug 17
- SUP 4: 1.2770 Low Aug 15
USDCAD printed a higher high for a fourth consecutive session Wednesday, before fading slightly into the close. This confirms an extension of recent gains and maintains the current bullish theme. This week’s move higher has strengthened bullish conditions and opens 1.3224 next as the key resistance at the Jul 14 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend. Initial firm support is at 1.2895. A break would alter the picture.
US TSYS: Late Eurodollar/SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
Large Eurodollar put spds traded around midsession, targeting year end "higher for longer" rate hike speculation.
- SOFR Options:
- 5,000 SFRU 96.87/97.00 call spds
- Block, +3,500 SFRH3 96.25/96.50 put spds 3.5 over 96.75 calls
- Eurodollar Options:
- 7,000 short Mar 98.00/98.75 put spds
- 30,000 Dec 99.00/99.25 put spds
- +30,000 Dec 99.00/99.75 put spds, 77.0
- 30,000 Dec 99.00/99.62 put spds
- -7,500 Red Dec'23 97.00/98.00 put spds, 77.0 vs. 96.245/0.15%
- Treasury Options:
- 1,500 TYX 115/117 2x1 put spds, 8
- 2,500 TYV 113/114 put spds, 5
- 2,000 FVV 107/108/108.5/109.25 put condors
- +3,000 TYZ 122.5 calls, 18
- +2,500 FVV 110 puts, 21.5 ref 110-26.75
US TSY FUTURES: Re-Send Post-Closing Levels - New Lows
To show extent of late market selling as 30Y bond futures revisit late overnight lows are bouncing slightly last couple minutes. Currently:
- 3M10Y +10.334, 23.584 (L: 10.992 / H: 23.584)
- 2Y10Y +4.125, -30.194 (L: -36.415 / H: -29.784)
- 2Y30Y +4.621, -18.396 (L: -24.772 / H: -17.56)
- 5Y30Y +1.879, -3.407 (L: -6.205 / H: -2.346)
- Current futures levels:
- Dec 2Y down 0.875/32 at 104-03.75 (L: 104-02.125 / H: 104-06.5)
- Dec 5Y down 5.25/32 at 110-21 (L: 110-20 / H: 110-30.25)
- Dec 10Y down 15/32 at 116-19.5 (L: 116-19 / H: 117-07.5)
- Dec 30Y down 31/32 at 135-09 (L: 135-08 / H: 136-14)
- Dec Ultra 30Y down 1-28/32 at 148-18 (L: 148-17 / H: 150-22)
