GOLD TECHS: Northbound

• The Riksbank December meeting minutes are due at 0830GMT/0930CET today. We will be focused on individual member’s views on the balance of risks to growth, inflation and policy rates through next year.
• The Riksbank held the policy rate at 1.75% as unanimously expected on December 18. The statement re-iterated that the policy rate is likely to remain at this level for “some time to come”. This was supported by the December MPR rate path, which was steady at 1.75% for the first three quarters through Q3 2026.
• MNI’s full review of the December Riksbank decision is here
• Lending data for November was supportive of the ongoing economic recovery narrative. Non-financial corporation lending growth was 3.5% Y/Y (vs 3.0% in October, 2.5% in September). Although household lending growth eased a touch to 2.8% Y/Y (vs 2.9% prior), lending still rose on a levels basis (see charts).

• RES 4: $70.06 - High Jul 30 
• RES 3: $68.58 - High Sep 26 
• RES 2: $64.81 - High Oct 24 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $62.20/64.81 - 50-day EMA / High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $62.48 @ 06:33 GMT Dec 24 
• SUP 1: $58.53 - Low Dec 16   
• SUP 2: $58.27 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 3: $57.87 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
• SUP 4: $56.44 - 2.000 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains present and for now, the latest strong recovery is considered corrective. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $58.27, the Apr 9 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance to watch is $64.81, the Oct 24 high. First resistance is $62.20, the 50-day EMA. 

• RES 4: 121.33 High Oct 21 and a key resistance area 
• RES 3: 121.37 High Nov 13 
• RES 2: 121.24 High Nov 26 
• RES 1: 120.59/77 High Dec 29 / 3   
• PRICE: 120.54 @ Close Dec 29
• SUP 1: 120.07/119.45 Low Dec 29 / 22           
• SUP 2: 119.13 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 118.84 2.000 proj of the Nov 13 - 20 - 26 price swing 

BTP futures traded sharply higher yesterday, extending the bounce that started Dec 10. It is still possible that the latest move higher is part of a corrective cycle. A continuation higher would open 120.77 next, the Dec 3 high. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on 119.45, the Dec 22 low, and 119.13, the Dec 10 low and bear trigger. Clearance of 119.13 would confirm a resumption of the recent bear leg.