SILVER TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 93.33 Low Nov 13 a gap high on the daily chart 
• RES 3: 93.00 20-day EMA        
• RES 2: 92.85 High Nov 14 
• RES 1: 92.45 High Nov 17  
• PRICE: 92.40 @ 08:01 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 91.94 Low Nov 17       
• SUP 2: 91.82 High Sep 11 and a former key breakout level
• SUP 3: 91.67 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - Nov 4 bull leg   
• SUP 4: 91.12 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - Nov 4 bull leg  

The recent sharp pullback in Gilt futures still appears corrective and the next key support to watch lies at 91.82, the Sep 11 high and a former key breakout level. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. First resistance to watch is 92.85, the Nov 14 high. For bears, a break of 91.82, the Sep 11 high, would strengthen a bear theme and open 91.67, a Fibonacci retracement.

• RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $55.000 Round number resistance
• RES 1: $54.480 - High Oct 17 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: $51.293 @ 08:09 GMT Nov 19
• SUP 1: $49.363 - Low Nov 18  
• SUP 2: $47.520/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28 
• SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27  

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective, for now. Support to watch lies at 50-day EMA, at $47.520. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and open $55.444, a Fibonacci projection.

• The EUR 10s30s swap curve registered a fresh multi-year high yesterday, currently trading around 30bps. The next upside area of interest is the Oct 7 ’21 closing level of ~35bps. Confirmation of/reiterations surrounding the transition plans of large Dutch pension funds has reignited steepener interest in recent weeks.
• Positioning in steepeners continue to be deemed as somewhat heavy, which may limit the speed and magnitude of further upside moves. Focus now turns to the impact of actual pension fund flows (i.e. unwinding of existing long-end received swap positions, expected to be conducted gradually through the course of next year) and the progress of schemes planning to transition in 2027 (e.g. ABP, the largest fund).
• Yesterday, PFZW (the second largest pension fund) received confirmation from DNB to transition on Jan 1, 2026 (here: https://www.pfzw.nl/over-pfzw/nieuws/pfzw-ontvangt-invaarbeschikking.html) . PFZW had indicated in October that it was on track to transition, so an announcement from DNB had been expected ahead of year-end. While this drove light EUR 10s30s steepening intraday, the reaction was fairly contained.
• With Dutch pension fund transitions progressing as expected, the next point of interest in the EUR long end may be details of Germany’s 2026 issuance plans. Last week’s 2026 budget contained higher net debt than initial drafts.
• Note that Buxl ASW (vs 6-month Euribor) is currently at a year-to-date high of -27bps. The main risk to recent widening would be a larger-than-expected skew towards long-end issuance in Germany.