SILVER TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: $71.771 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: $70.000 - Psychological round number
- RES 2: $68.397 - 2.236 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing
- RES 1: $66.528 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $65.730 @ 07:56 GMT Dec 17
- SUP 1: $58.195 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $53.367/48.644 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21
- SUP 3: $45.557 - Low Oct 28
- SUP 4: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and today’s extension reinforces the current bull theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bull position and this continues to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. The metal has also traded through the psychological $60.00 handle. Sights are on $68.397 next, the 2.236 projection of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - 21 price swing. Initial key support lies at $58.195, the 20-day EMA.
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GILTS: Opening Calls
Gilt opening Calls: 91.98/92.05.
EQUITIES: EU Cash Opening Calls
Estox 50: +0.09%, Dax: +0.18%, CAC: -0.14%, FTSE +0.04%, SMI +0.15%.
STIR: 18bp Of BoE Cuts Priced For Dec, UK CPI Headlines This Week
GBP STIRs consolidate Friday’s hawkish repricing with nothing in the way of major weekend headline cues (TY & Bund futures little changed vs. levels that prevailed at Friday’s SONIA settlement, UK fiscal speculation focused on smaller taxes, see recent bullet).
- 18bp of easing priced for December, 26.5bp through February & 34bp through March.
- SONIA futures flat.
- BoE MPC member Mann will speak this afternoon (13:20 London). A reminder that we have previously suggested that speeches from MPC members outside of Governor Bailey are likely to have less impact for markets in the run up to the December decision (given their entrenched views).
- Wednesday’s CPI data headlines in the UK this week.
- There is more uncertainty than usual around the CPI print. We have seen sell-side estimates for headline CPI that are both above and below the BoE's updated +3.60% Y/Y forecast (BBG survey consensus +3.5% at typing).
- Markets will assess whether the print will push Governor Bailey to support a December cut.
- Given current market pricing we think that there is potential for a larger move if the data comes in higher than expected.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA (bp) |
Dec-25 | 3.788 | -18.2 |
Feb-26 | 3.704 | -26.6 |
Mar-26 | 3.628 | -34.2 |
Apr-26 | 3.537 | -43.3 |
Jun-26 | 3.499 | -47.1 |
Jul-26 | 3.457 | -51.3 |
Sep-26 | 3.445 | -52.5 |
