SILVER TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing   
• RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: $54.480 - High Oct 17 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: $82.374 - 76.4% retracement of Oct 17 - 28 bear leg    
• PRICE: $51.573 @ 08:11 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: $46.670/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28  
• SUP 2: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
• SUP 3: $40.000 - Round number support 
• SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27  

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. The trend has recently been in overbought territory and the retracement has allowed this to unwind. Price remains above support at the 50-day EMA, at $46.670. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance has been defined at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Initial resistance is $52.374, a Fibonacci retracement.

• RES 4: 1.4274 High Apr 9  
• RES 3: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.4140/55 High Nov 5 / Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low 
• PRICE: 1.4009 @ 08:09 GMT Nov 12
• SUP 1: 1.4001 Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 1.3957 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 1.3878 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low

USDCAD is trading below last week’s high. The latest pullback highlights a potential bearish development and a possible reversal. Resistance at the top of a bull channel, currently at 1.4155, remains intact. The bull channel is drawn from the Jul 23 low. The pair has pierced support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.4021. This exposes the 50-day EMA at 1.3957. For bulls, a break of the channel top is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

In the wake of the Oct ’13 high holding in AUD/NZD, Westpac note that the trans-Tasman cross has “sustained a break above 1.1500 decade-old resistance, and the longer it does so, the more we are inclined to remain bullish”.

• They write “fundamentals on both sides back the case for a longer-term range reset, to around 1.15-1.20 for the year ahead. Yield spreads at 13-year lows reflect solid Australian economic momentum and a subdued NZ economy yet to witness the fruits of the large easing cycle”.
• Still, Westpac are “open to some tactical trading over the next few weeks given the cross is extremely stretched according to momentum indicators. Below 1.1525, and certainly below 1.1500, could invite a tactical short, while a dip to 1.1400 may be an opportunity to reverse and enter fresh longs. Australian jobs data tomorrow could be a catalyst”.