GOLD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 107.430 High Jun 13  
• RES 3: 107.360 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 107.242 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.182 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 107.160 @ 07:21 BST Aug 5 
• SUP 1: 107.010 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 107.993 1.500 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

The sell-off in Schatz futures between Jul 23 - 25, resulted in a break of key short-term support at 107.120, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. However, the contract has recovered from the Jul 25 low and recent price patterns highlight a potential base. A resumption of gains would expose resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 107.182. The 50-day EMA is at 107.242. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 107.010, the Jul 25 low.                                                                    

• RES 4: 131.33 High Jun 20
• RES 3: 130.85 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - Jul 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 130.76 High Jul 22
• RES 1: 130.53 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 130.38 @ 07:14 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 128.84 Low Jul 25 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)  

Bund futures traded sharply higher Friday - and constructively to begin this week. Prices have topped the 50-day EMA of 130.11 - reinforcing a bullish theme. A continuation higher would open 130.76, the Jul 22 high. The sell-off on Jul 25, resulted in a test of the base of a 3.5-month range at the 129.00 handle. Price has recovered and this key support remains intact, for now. A hammer candle formation on Jul 25 followed by a bullish engulfing candle on Jul 28 signals a potential reversal. Key support to watch is 128.84, the Jul 25 low.                                                        

• A much lighter Overnight session for Bund and Tnotes compared to Yesterday, but the direction of Travel has extended to the upside.
• The Bund made a new high on the Cash open, and the printed high will be bringing the 10yr Yield closer to 2.60%.
• The US 10yr Yield tested the July low and lowest level seen since May, next support in Yield is now seen toward 4.13%, which equates to 112.27, this is the next big area to Watch.
• But for now, TYU5 has drifted to session low at 112.09.
• Short term risk for Bund remains to the upside, next resistance area comes at 130.57 followed by 130.76.
• Small support moves up 129.99.
• Today's Services PMIs are final for France, Germany, EU, UK, and US, the main focus for Today will on the US ISM services.
• SUPPLY: There's heavy supply Today, UK £4.5bn 10yr (equates to 38.6k Gilt) will weigh, Germany €5bn Schatz (equates to ~53.3k Schatz), same as for Gilt, this is heavy and will weigh into the bidding deadlines. US Sells $58bn of 3yr Notes.