EURGBP TECHS: Northbound

• The 30 analysts reviewed below unanimously expect a 25bp rate cut this week, leaving a 2% deposit rate.  
• The median expects one more cut for a terminal of 1.75%, with a mix between following in July or waiting until the subsequent forecast round in September.
• We believe at least 9 of the below have changed their terminal view since shortly after the April ECB decision, although in conflicting directions with five lower and four higher.
• Some look for Lagarde to hint at a July pause. That’s not a majority view but would fit under the more widely held view that the ECB will want to keep all options open. 

The below is taken from the full MNI ECB Preview, found here. 

• RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 2021
• RES 3: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3605 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3593 High May 26 and a bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.3524 @ 16:15 BST Jun 3
• SUP 1: 1.3408 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3335/3244 Low May 20 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14

The trend structure in GBPUSD remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback is considered corrective. First key support lies at 1.3408, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would suggest potential for a deeper correction and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3244. For bulls, a  resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.3593, the May 26 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.    

RRP usage rebounds to $153.177B this afternoon from $135.841B yesterday, total number of counterparties at 34. Usage had fallen to $54.772B on Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021. Conversely, usage had surged to the highest level since December 31, 2024 on Monday, March 31: $399.167B.