EURGBP TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8738 High Apr 11 high and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8694 High Apr 14
- RES 1: 0.8670 High Jul 02
- PRICE: 0.8615 @ 16:36 BST Jul 3
- SUP 1: 0.8578 Low Jul 2
- SUP 2: 0.8534/8493 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 0.8459 Low Jun 11
- SUP 4: 0.8407 Low Jun 4
The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and this week’s gains together with Wednesday’s acceleration, reinforce current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position - highlighting a dominant uptrend. 0.8648, 76.4% of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg, has been pierced. A continuation higher would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 0.8534, the 20-day EMA.
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ECB: Summary Of Analyst Views Ahead Of Thursday's Decision
- The 30 analysts reviewed below unanimously expect a 25bp rate cut this week, leaving a 2% deposit rate.
- The median expects one more cut for a terminal of 1.75%, with a mix between following in July or waiting until the subsequent forecast round in September.
- We believe at least 9 of the below have changed their terminal view since shortly after the April ECB decision, although in conflicting directions with five lower and four higher.
- Some look for Lagarde to hint at a July pause. That’s not a majority view but would fit under the more widely held view that the ECB will want to keep all options open.
The below is taken from the full MNI ECB Preview, found here.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 2021
- RES 3: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3605 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 1: 1.3593 High May 26 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3524 @ 16:15 BST Jun 3
- SUP 1: 1.3408 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3335/3244 Low May 20 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
- SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14
The trend structure in GBPUSD remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback is considered corrective. First key support lies at 1.3408, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would suggest potential for a deeper correction and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3244. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.3593, the May 26 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage rebounds to $153.177B this afternoon from $135.841B yesterday, total number of counterparties at 34. Usage had fallen to $54.772B on Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021. Conversely, usage had surged to the highest level since December 31, 2024 on Monday, March 31: $399.167B.
