GBPUSD TECHS: Northbound

Silver Bulletin has published a new detailed breakdown of President Trump's polling performance, noting that the economy is now a “liability” for the administration, despite a stabilisation of his approval. 

• Silver notes: “As you can see, the issue approval pattern from Trump’s first term — when the economy was generally his strongest issue, but he was often fighting losing battles on the “culture wars” — has somewhat reversed. This time around, immigration is one of Trump’s least bad topics, although his numbers have nevertheless declined. However, the economy is a considerably bigger liability.”
• Silver adds: “Still, there’s been a slight rebound in Trump’s numbers over the past week. Might that be because he’s struck a more conciliatory tone on tariffs? The stock market has liked the change in vibes and maybe that’s improving voters’ mood, too. (We suspect that some voters may be relatively sensitive to stock prices.) That’s what this sort of data can help discern. As you can see in the chart, there’s been an uptick in his ratings on trade. And his economic approval has stabilized over the past couple of weeks.”

Figure 1: Trump Approval Rating 

Source: Silver Bulletin 

RRP usage climbs to $154.859B this afternoon from $129.858B yesterday, total number of counterparties at 46. Usage had fallen to $54.772B last Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021. Conversely, usage had surged to the highest level since December 31, 2024 on Monday, March 31: $399.167B.

Instant Answers Questions for the BOE May 2025 policy decision, with results expected at 12.02 on Thursday - 2 minutes later than normally published due to a national period of reflection for VE Day.

1.    Was the Bank Rate changed, and if so by how much?

2.    Number of members voting for 25bp cut?

3.    Number of members voting for 50bp cut?

4.    Number of members voting for other rate decision? 
NB: On questions 2-4 we will name the dissenters (and the direction / magnitude of dissent)

5.    Did the MPC drop reference to a “gradual approach” from its guidance?

6.    Did the MPC drop reference to “careful” in the guidance?

7.    Did the MPC drop reference to “restrictive” from its guidance?

8.    Did the MPC again say it will “decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting”?

9.    Did the MPC leave its guidance paragraph materially unchanged versus the March policy statement?

10.    UK CPI forecast in 2 years time at market rates (mode / mean)? 
Previous: 2.3% / 2.3% (Previous Q2-27 was 2.2% / 2.2%)

11.    UK CPI forecast in 3 years time at market rates (mode / mean)? 
Previous: 1.9% / 1.9%

12.    UK GDP modal forecasts at market rates (2025/2026/2027)?
Previous 0.75%/1.5%/1.5%
Note: Q12 to nearest 0.25ppt