GBPUSD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 3: 1.2990 High Nov 8 2024
- RES 2: 1.2924 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.2874 High Nov 12 ‘24 & Mar 5
- PRICE: 1.2872 @ 16:06 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 1.2679 Low Mar 4
- SUP 2: 1.2595 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2554 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
- SUP 4: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and this week’s strong gains reinforce this theme. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a potentially stronger bull cycle. Sights are on a climb towards 1.2924, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2554, the 50-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
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FED: Atlanta's Bostic: Might Be "Waiting For A While" For Rate Cuts
Atlanta Fed President Bostic (non-2025 voter), who has leaned variously dovish and hawkish on the FOMC spectrum in the last couple of years, suggested in a Q&A Monday that the Fed may be "waiting for a while" before easing rates further. "I want to see what the 100 bps we did last year translates to in terms of the economy. Depending on what the data are, it might mean that we are waiting for a while."
- On rising policy uncertainty: "I had uncertainty on Dec. 31. The amount of uncertainty we have today is greater than that. I want to be cautious and I don't want to have our policy lean in a direction making an assumption our economy is going to evolve a certain way and then I have to turn and unwind. There are a lot of things I have to wait and see about before I feel confident I know which direction policy will go."
- He says that as of the end of 2024, the labor market was pretty solid, inflation was high but we had taken a lot of policy action to recalibrate it so that when it reached target we would be at a neutral rate. GDP maintained strength and firms were confident 2025 was going to be about the same as 2024.
- He notes "A lot of moving parts" from policy changes, economists expect tariffs would raise prices but deregulation unleash investment and productivity and put downward pressure on prices. He says that the most important thing we can do right now is ask our business contacts and families what they would do under various scenarios to understand their reaction function.
- On inflation: My outlook for inflation is to continue falling toward 2% in a bumpy, janky way. Housing is a major factor contributing to stubbornness. Alternate measures are pointing to disinflation but we have to stay on top of why the PCE measure isn't behaving like that.
- He reiterates that his neutral rate estimate is 3-3.5% area (nominal).
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage falls back below $100B again -- to $97.781B this afternoon from $187.913B Friday. Compares to Monday, January 27 usage of $92.863B - the lowest level since mid-April 2021. The number of counterparties falls to 39 from 57 prior.
US TSY FUTURES: Heavy Buying on Latest Tariff Headlines
- Treasury futures see heavy round of buying last couple minutes, over 50,000 TYH5 from 109-02 to -05.5, pushing total volume to 2.2M for the contract, following the latest tariff headlines where Pres Trump said he "had good talk with Trudeau".
- Less positive, Trump follows with "E’RE NOT TREATED WELL BY CANADA WE DON’T NEED CANADIAN CARS, LUMBER, AGRICULTURE WOULDN’T MIND MAKING OUR CARS IN THE UNITED STATES" Rtrs.
- "HAVEN’T AGREED WITH MEXICO ON TARIFFS YET" Bbg after earlier headlines noted delay of tariffs to early May.
- The TYH5 contract trades 109-05 last, off early session high of 109-15.5, through initial technical resistance of 109-10.5 (50-day EMA), next level 109-31 (High Dec 18).
