NORWAY: Norges Bank Won’t Overreact To Weak April Manufacturing PMI
May-02 10:15
We don’t read much into the sharply weaker Norwegian April manufacturing PMI. Norges Bank will likely pay more attention to other economic indicators (e.g. inflation, employment) ahead of the May 8 decision, where rates are very likely to be held at 4.50%. Additionally, Norges Bank’s own industrial confidence survey remained in expansionary territory in Q1 at 4.0 (vs 5.3 prior), with the general outlook for Q2 deemed positive amongst respondents.
- The PMI fell to 46.1 in April (vs 50.1 prior), the first contractionary reading since June 2024. This brings the 3mma to 49.4, the lowest since June 2023. However, we caveat that the PMI can be very volatile month-to-month (see chart).
- Looking at the details (source: DNB):
- Production fell 4.3 points to 46.5.
- New orders fell 9.1 points to 38.2, driven by a 5.0 point fall in export orders.
- Employment fell 1.2 points to 53.0.
- Supplier deliveries rose 2.0 points to 52.6, and inventories rose 2.3 points to 54.9.
- Input prices fell 3.6 points to 57.3.
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EU-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 3/6/12-Month EU-Bills
Apr-02 10:09
| Type | 3-month EU-bill | 6-month EU-bill | 12-month EU-bill |
| Maturity | Jul 4, 2025 | Oct 3, 2025 | Apr 10, 2025 |
| Amount | E1.369bln | E1.228bln | E1.326bln |
| Target | E1.5bln | E1.5bln | E1.5bln |
| Previous | E1.271bln | E1.243bln | E995mln |
| Avg yield | 2.254% | 2.220% | 2.141% |
| Previous | 2.340% | 2.297% | 2.243% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.35x | 1.42x | 2.28x |
| Previous | 1.23x | 1.42x | 1.71x |
| Previous date | Mar 19, 2025 | Mar 19, 2025 | Mar 19, 2025 |
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In EUROSTOXX 50 Fut. Remains Present
Apr-02 10:08
- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis maintain a softer tone following recent bearish price action. Sights are on key support and the bear trigger at 5559.75, the Mar 13 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Feb 19, and open 5483.30, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high. Initial firm resistance is 5757.95, the 20-day EMA. Gains are considered corrective.
- EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower Monday resulting in a breach of key support at 5229.00, the Mar 11 low. The contract has recovered, however, the print below 5229.00 undermines a bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The 5200 handle has also been cleared, opening 5079.00, the Feb 3 low. It is still possible that recent weakness is part of a broader correction. Initial firm resistance is 5335.34, the 20-day EMA.
US: SOFR FIX - 02/04/25
Apr-02 10:01
SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME
- 1M 4.31930 0.00034
- 3M 4.27734 -0.00364
- 6M 4.16448 -0.00244
- 12M 3.95120 -0.00869
