POWER: Nordic October Power Tracks Above 4% Weekly Decline
Sep-12 06:43
Nordic front-month power futures are on track for a weekly net decline of above 4% as of Thursday’s close amid wet and mild weather forecasts. The product is expected to open higher, once liquid, with a downward revision in the region’s hydro balances, weighed against small losses in EU gas prices.
- Nordic Base Power OCT 25 closed up 4% at 36.15 EUR/MWh on 11 Sept
- Germany Base Power OCT 25 up 0.1% at 86.1 EUR/MWh
- TTF Gas OCT 25 down 0.4% at 32.19 EUR/MWh
- The Norwegian hydro balance has been sharply revised down to end at 1.14TWh on 26 September, down from 1.58TWh previously.
- Sweden’s hydro balance has also been revised down to 2.49TWh as of 26 September, from 2.81TWh previously.
- Precipitation forecasts for the Nordics were mixed with wet conditions – above normal – from late this week into next week, before turning drier. Precipitation is then forecast to rise to almost 10mm on 20 August.
- The latest 14-day ECMWF forecast for the Nordics suggests mean temperatures will remain above normal until late next week, before moving in line with the average and eventually briefly drop below normal.
- Wind output in Norway next week is forecast at 504-999MW over 15-19 September during base load, revised down on the day according to SpotRenewables.
- Nordic nuclear capacity was at 53% capacity on Friday morning, down from 55% on Thursday, according to Bloomberg. 6 of the 11 units are online.
- Fortum Oyj has extended the planned maintenance of 507MW Loviisa 2 by four days until 16 September. 507MW Loviisa 1 will be offline until 23 September.
- Sweden’s 1.1GW Forsmark 1 nuclear reactor will have works until 6 December, with the 1.4GW OS3 nuke will have planned works until 17 October, while the 1.13GW Ringhals 4 will be disconnected until 16 September.
- Closer in, Norwegian wind output is forecast at 894MW during base load on Saturday and at 945MW on Sunday, from 1.59GW on Friday.
- Power demand in the Nordics is forecast at 35.04GW on Saturday and 34.78GW on Sunday, from 38.17GW on Friday, Reuters data showed.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
USD: Some early downside extensions
Aug-13 06:42
- Continued small broader lows for the Dollar as we head into the European session, nothing fast or big as of Yet.
- A new intraday low versus the EUR, AUD, SGD, CNH, MXN, KRW, ILS, NOK, SEK and CHF.
- As just mentioned, Cable is eyeing a test to 1.3524 next.
USD: Moving into the red against G10s
Aug-13 06:35
- The Dollar was flat during the Overnight session against all G10s, and Overall very tight ranges.
- While it is a touch in the red, looking at the Stokkie which is the best early performer, it is only up 0.20%.
- USDSEK printed a 9.5310 low Yesterday (Prices are according to Bloomberg), and so far Today a 9.5338 low.
- Initial support comes at the 9.4800 area.
- The Second best performer in G10s is the NOK, but first support is a little further out, at last Week's low of 10.1537.
- Looking back at the past 5 days, the Pound has been the best performer, up 1.14%, GBPUSD is looking to test 1.3524, Yesterday's high into the European session.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Plumbing New Highs
Aug-13 06:34
- RES 4: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 3: 6500.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 6477.31 1.618 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 1: 6474.75 High Aug 31 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 6466.75 @ 07:30 BST Aug 13
- SUP 1: 6253.04 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
- SUP 2: 6239.50 Low Aug 1
- SUP 3: 6240.28 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 6213.75 50% retracement of Jun - Aug Upleg
With the recovery based well off the early August low, prices have hit new highs Wednesday, marking a formal resumption of the underlying uptrend. Projection levels kick in at 6477.31 ahead of round number resistance into 6500.00. Through recent phases of weakness, the 50-day EMA at 6240.28, has held as support - and will be important on any subsequent declines. Clearance of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal.
