POWER: Nordic October Power to Extend Gains on Dry Weather
Sep-18 06:44
The Nordic October power base-load contract is expected to open higher, once liquid, extending this week’s gains with forecasts for drier weather and gains in German power and EU gas markets.
- Nordic Base Power OCT 25 closed up 3.3% at 42.75 EUR/MWh on 17 Sept
- Nordic Base Power 4Q25 closed up 2.3% at 52.4 EUR/MWh on 17 Sept
- Germany Base Power OCT 25 up 0.5% at 90.5 EUR/MWh
- TTF Gas OCT 25 up 0.5% at 32.575 EUR/MWh
- The Norwegian hydro balance forecast has been slightly revised up through September to end at -248GWh on 2 October.
- Sweden’s hydro balance forecast has been revised down to end at 1.74TWh on 2 October, from 1.88TWh previously.
- The latest two-week weather forecast for the Nordics suggests precipitation has been revised down to remain below normal for most of the forecast period. Precipitation is forecast to pick up in early October.
- The latest 14-day ECMWF forecast for the Nordics suggests mean temperatures will remain above normal until late this week before briefly dropping below normal, over 23-25 September, after which temperatures will rise back above normal.
- Wind output in Norway is forecast at 405MW to 1.22GW during base load over 19-25 September according to SpotRenewables.
- Nordic nuclear capacity rose to 60% of capacity as of Thursday morning, from 57% on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg. 6 of the 11 units are online.
- In Finland, Fortum Oyj’s 507MW Loviisa 2 outage has been extended to end on Thursday 11:00 CET. 507MW Loviisa 1 will be offline until 23 September.
- Sweden’s 1.134GW Ringhals 4 nuclear plant restarted on Wednesday. The 1.1GW Forsmark 1 nuclear reactor will have works until 6 December, with the 1.4GW OS3 nuke will have planned works until 17 October.
- Closer in, Norwegian wind output is forecast at 575MW during base load on Friday, from 630MW on Thursday.
- Power demand in the Nordics is forecast 39.22GWh/h on Friday, down from 40.15GWh/h on Thursday, Reuters data showed.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Northbound
Aug-19 06:36
- RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6554.98 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 1: 6508.75 High Aug 15 and Alltime High
- PRICE: 6458.50 @ 07:25 BST Aug 19
- SUP 1: 6399.62 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6313.25 Low Aug 6
- SUP 3: 6275.78 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1
The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, supports to watch are; 6399.62, the 20-day EMA, and 6275.78, the 50-day EMA.
INDONESIA: MNI Bank Indonesia Preview-August 2025: BI To Watch & Wait
Aug-19 06:34
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- Bank Indonesia (BI) cut rates 25bp at its July meeting but is likely to leave them at 5.25% on August 20. It holds monthly meetings and so has the flexibility to choose its timing for further easing, especially given that inflation remains around the mid-point of its 1.5-3.5% target band and Q2 growth was slightly stronger than expected.
- BI is likely to maintain its gradual approach and monitor the Fed, rupiah, global developments, the transmission of its previous 100bp of cuts and the domestic economy, while maintaining its easing bias. With four meetings left after this one, at least one more cut before end-2025 is highly likely.
- FX stability remains the focus and with the rupiah broadly stronger since the July meeting and bond and SRBI yields lower, it could ease again in August, which 6/34 analysts on Bloomberg are forecasting. The currency remains broadly weaker compared to a year ago though.
USD: Some downside short term risk in AUDUSD
Aug-19 06:34
- A steady flat Dollar overnight against G10s, and most Pairs/Crosses trade in fairly contained range, as the Globe wait for Mr Powell on Friday.
- Looking at the two ends, Yen is up a tiny 0.12%, and the NOK is down a small 0.17%.
- Looking back at the past 5 days, the Aussie is the worst performer, down 0.69%, and AUDUSD hovers at a new intraday low, its lowest level in nine sessions.
- while Technically, from a trend perspective, the condition remains bullish and this is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode position, the very short term Chart is interesting, with small risk to the downside, and a test towards 0.6450.
- A clear break through the latter, would open to 0.6419, the August NFP day low.
