POWER: Nordic October Power to Extend Gains on Dry Weather

• RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 6554.98 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing 
• RES 1: 6508.75 High Aug 15 and Alltime High
• PRICE: 6458.50 @ 07:25 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 6399.62 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 6313.25 Low Aug 6  
• SUP 3: 6275.78 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1

The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent highs. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, supports to watch are; 6399.62, the 20-day EMA, and 6275.78, the 50-day EMA.

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• Bank Indonesia (BI) cut rates 25bp at its July meeting but is likely to leave them at 5.25% on August 20. It holds monthly meetings and so has the flexibility to choose its timing for further easing, especially given that inflation remains around the mid-point of its 1.5-3.5% target band and Q2 growth was slightly stronger than expected.
• BI is likely to maintain its gradual approach and monitor the Fed, rupiah, global developments, the transmission of its previous 100bp of cuts and the domestic economy, while maintaining its easing bias. With four meetings left after this one, at least one more cut before end-2025 is highly likely.
• FX stability remains the focus and with the rupiah broadly stronger since the July meeting and bond and SRBI yields lower, it could ease again in August, which 6/34 analysts on Bloomberg are forecasting. The currency remains broadly weaker compared to a year ago though.

• A steady flat Dollar overnight against G10s, and most Pairs/Crosses trade in fairly contained range, as the Globe wait for Mr Powell on Friday.
• Looking at the two ends, Yen is up a tiny 0.12%, and the NOK is down a small 0.17%.
• Looking back at the past 5 days, the Aussie is the worst performer, down 0.69%, and AUDUSD hovers at a new intraday low, its lowest level in nine sessions.
• while Technically, from a trend perspective, the condition remains bullish and this is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode position, the very short term Chart is interesting, with small risk to the downside, and a test towards 0.6450.
• A clear break through the latter, would open to 0.6419, the August NFP day low.