POWER: Nordic October Power May Rise But Downside Pressure Persists

• RES 4: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $77.73 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $72.83 - High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $66.06 @ 07:16 BST Aug 18
• SUP 1: $65.01 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures remain in a bear cycle and the contract is trading at its recent lows. Sights are on $65.01, the Aug 13 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and pave the way for an extension lower. A clear breach would open $60.96, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $72.83, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.

• The German Bund is flat going into the Cash Open, a tight 15 ticks range, and the contract has found support just short of the 2.80% in Yield on Friday, printed a 2.791% high.
• The 2.80% level equated to 128.57, and this will be the initial support area to watch.
• Fiscal loosening policy, Borrowing outlook, and expectation of Issuance increase next Year have all been suggested for the big moves seen in the longer end part of the curve, but no new overall trigger was seen on the actual moves.
• Resistance in Bund moves down to the 129.08 area, followed by 129.62, Friday's high.
• There are no notable Data for Today, so the Focus will turn to the Trump, Zelenskyy and EU Leaders Meeting.
• TIMING (as per politico): Oval office Trump and Zelenskyy only at 13:15ET/18:15BST, Trump, Zelenskyy and EU Leaders at 15:00ET/20.00BST.

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 121.13 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 120.17 @ Close Aug 15
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and remains bullish. However, for now, the contract is trading inside a range and Friday’s sell-off signals scope for a move towards the lower end of the range. Key support to watch lies at 119.59, the Jul 25 low. A clear break of this level would mark a range breakout and highlight a bearish threat. Key resistance is unchanged at 121.73, the Jun 13 high.