POWER: Nordic October Power May Rise But Downside Pressure Persists
Nordic October power base load may see some upward pressure in Wednesday’s session, after four consecutive sessions of increases, from a downward revision in Norway’s hydro balance and gains in German power and EU gas markets. Forecasts for milder weather and the return of Loviisa 2 and Ringhals 4 may cap the upside.
- Nordic Base Power OCT 25 closed up 2.2% at 41.4 EUR/MWh on 16 Sept
- Nordic Base Power 4Q25 closed up 1.2% at 51.2 EUR/MWh on 16 Sept
- Germany Base Power OCT 25 up 0.8% at 90.62 EUR/MWh
- TTF Gas OCT 25 up 0.7% at 32.545 EUR/MWh
- The Norwegian hydro balance forecast has been revised down to -217GWh as of 1 October, from -197GWh previously.
- Sweden’s hydro balance forecast has been broadly stable forecast-on-forecast at 2TWh as of 1 October.
- The latest two-week weather forecast for the Nordics suggests precipitation to pick up slightly at the end of this week to 3.9mm, before drier conditions set for the remainder of this month.
- The latest 14-day ECMWF forecast for the Nordics suggests mean temperatures have been revised up to remain above normal until the start of next week, when temperatures will briefly below normal before rising back up.
- Wind output in Norway is forecast at 513MW to 1.83GW during base-load hours over 18-24 September according to SpotRenewables.
- Nordic nuclear capacity rose to 57% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, from 55% on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. 6 of the 11 units are online.
- In Finland, Fortum Oyj’s 507MW Loviisa 2 is scheduled to return on Wednesday at 13:00 CET. 507MW Loviisa 1 will be offline until 23 September.
- Sweden’s 1.134GW Ringhals 4 nuclear plant is scheduled to return on Wednesday at 12:00 CET. The 1.1GW Forsmark 1 nuclear reactor will have works until 6 December, with the 1.4GW OS3 nuke will have planned works until 17 October.
- Closer in, Norwegian wind output is forecast at 513MW during base load on Thursday, down from 873MW on Wednesday.
- Power demand in the Nordics is forecast 40.13GWh/h on Thursday, compared with 40.05GWh/h on Wednesday, Reuters data showed.
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BRENT TECHS: (V5) Bear Cycle Intact
- RES 4: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $77.73 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.83 - High Jul 30 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $66.06 @ 07:16 BST Aug 18
- SUP 1: $65.01 - Low Aug 13
- SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures remain in a bear cycle and the contract is trading at its recent lows. Sights are on $65.01, the Aug 13 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and pave the way for an extension lower. A clear breach would open $60.96, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $72.83, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.
BUNDS: Trump, Zelenskyy and EU Leaders meet Today
- The German Bund is flat going into the Cash Open, a tight 15 ticks range, and the contract has found support just short of the 2.80% in Yield on Friday, printed a 2.791% high.
- The 2.80% level equated to 128.57, and this will be the initial support area to watch.
- Fiscal loosening policy, Borrowing outlook, and expectation of Issuance increase next Year have all been suggested for the big moves seen in the longer end part of the curve, but no new overall trigger was seen on the actual moves.
- Resistance in Bund moves down to the 129.08 area, followed by 129.62, Friday's high.
- There are no notable Data for Today, so the Focus will turn to the Trump, Zelenskyy and EU Leaders Meeting.
- TIMING (as per politico): Oval office Trump and Zelenskyy only at 13:15ET/18:15BST, Trump, Zelenskyy and EU Leaders at 15:00ET/20.00BST.
BTP TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 121.13 High Aug 15
- PRICE: 120.17 @ Close Aug 15
- SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and remains bullish. However, for now, the contract is trading inside a range and Friday’s sell-off signals scope for a move towards the lower end of the range. Key support to watch lies at 119.59, the Jul 25 low. A clear break of this level would mark a range breakout and highlight a bearish threat. Key resistance is unchanged at 121.73, the Jun 13 high.
