POWER: Nordic Forward Curve Moves in Red Territory on Above Seasonal Temps, TTF
The Nordic forward curve is trading in red to track losses in TTF, with a decline in German power adding some further downward pressure. Temperatures in the Nordics are also set to remain above the seasonal average until 3 February, with the 1.17GW Forsmark 3 due online on 27 January. However, a weakened hydro balance on the day in Norway may lend some support, while Sweden is up just slightly.
- Nordic Base Power FEB 25 down 10.5% at 34 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power FEB 25 down 1.4% at 102.29 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.4% at 78.94 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas FEB 25 down 1.1% at 46.35 EUR/MWh
- The Norwegian hydro balance is expected lower throughout the 14-day forecasts, with the balance anticipated at +10.73TWh on 3 February compared to +11.43TWh previously estimated.
- But Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +7.88TWh on 3 February compared to +7.78TWh in the previous estimate.
- Rainfall in the Nordics over 21 January- 3 February will be mostly above the average of 2.7mm until 28 January, with rainfall then anticipated to dip below over 29 January-3 February.
- Snowfall in the region is expected to be relatively low at between 0-3.8cm over 21 January- 3 February.
- And average temperatures in the region are still expected to be between -1.2C and 4.5C over 21 January- 3 February compared to the seasonal average of around -2.45C.
- Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at just 0.769GW on 21 January – down from the 1GW forecast for today – which could support delivery.
- Nordic nuclear availability is stable at 88% on the day capacity on Monday morning, according to Bloomberg. 10 of 11 units are still online.
- The 1.17GW Forsmark 3 nuke is still expected to return on 27 January.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU WANTS GOVT TO PREPARE FOR NEW US ADMINISTRATION
- TRUDEAU DOESN'T ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS LEADERSHIP
USDCAD TECHS: A Pullback Would Be Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4537 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4356 @ 16:56 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 1.4174/4014 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. While price faded into the Thursday close, the recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest rally opens 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4174, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
- RES 3: 0.6501 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 1: 0.6337/6396 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6263 @ 16:55 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and Wednesday’s sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6396, the 20-day EMA.
