POWER: Nordic Curve Moves Up on TTF, But Gains Could be Capped Amid Temps

The Nordic forward curve is mostly trading in green territory to track increases in TTF, however, upward revisions of the hydro balance in Norway and Sweden could limit gains. Temperatures in the region have also been revised higher and are still set to remain well above the seasonal average. Upcoming works at the 1.6GW OL3 nuclear plant will now occur over 1 March- 2 May.

• Nordic Base Power 2Q25 up 4.4% at 21 EUR/MWh
• France Base Power MAR 25 down 6.5% at 73.17 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power MAR 25 up 1.8% at 90.09 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 25 up 1.3% at 71.96 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas MAR 25 up 3.7% at 42.85 EUR/MWh
• Rotterdam Coal MAR 25 down 1% at 93.3 USD/MT
• Norway’s hydrological balance was revised up over 1-13 March by as much as around 1TWh and is expected to end at +10.04TWh on 13 March from +9.22TWh in the previous forecast for the same period.
• Sweden’s balance is also expected higher on the day and is now anticipated at +5.69TWh on 13 March from +5.56TWh previously estimated for the same day.
• Average temperatures in the Nordics have been revised higher over 27 February- 3 March. Temperatures are forecast to range between 0.44-4.21C over 27 February-13 March compared to the 30-year norm of -1.31C and 0.18C over the same period.
• Rainfall in the region has also been revised up, however, will remain mostly below the seasonal average until at least the 13 March.
• Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 100% capacity on Thursday morning, unchanged on the day. 11 of 11 units are still online, according to Bloomberg.
• Norwegian wind is anticipated at 2.11GW, or 40% load factor on 28 February, up from 1.44GW anticipated on 27 Feb – which could weigh on power prices from the previous session.
• Wind will then rise to 2.50GW on 28 Feb – likely further dropping prices.