POWER: Nordic August Power to Continue Trend Higher
Nordic front-month power base load is expected to open higher, after closing at the highest since 28 March on Monday, with gains in neighbouring power and EU gas markets and a downward revision in the region’s hydro balances.
- Nordic Base Power AUG 25 closed up 1.9% at 31.85 EUR/MWh on 28 July
- Nordic Base Power 3Q25 closed down 0.1% at 48.48 EUR/MWh on 28 July
- Germany Base Power AUG 25 up 1.1% at 80.99 EUR/MWh
- TTF Gas AUG 25 up 1% at 33.23 EUR/MWh
- The Norwegian hydro balance has been revised down from the previous forecast to 1.6TWh as of 12 August, from 1.82TWh before.
- Sweden’s hydro balance forecast has also been revised down to end at 2.23TWh on 12 August, from 2.68TWh previously, Bloomberg data showed.
- The latest two-week weather forecast for the Nordic mean temperatures will remain above normal throughout the forecast period.
- Precipitation is forecast to remain above normal until early next week, before conditions are forecast to be drier. Daily precipitation is forecast between 3mm-7.8mm for the remainder of this week.
- Nordic nuclear available capacity edged down to 77% of capacity as of Tuesday morning, from 79% on Monday, according to Bloomberg. 10 out 11 units were online on Tuesday.
- The 1.4GW OS3 reactor will still be offline until 3 September, and the FS3 nuclear reactor is running at around 800MW of capacity.
- Closer in, Norwegian wind output is forecast at 258-793MW during base load over 20 July and 5 August according to SpotRenewables.
- Power demand in the Nordics is forecast at 35.74GWh/h on Wednesday, slightly down from 35.85GWh/h on Tuesday, Reuters data showed.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US FISCAL: Available "Extraordinary" Measures To Ward Off X-Date Pick Up
Treasury reported Friday that as of Jun 25 it had $130B in remaining "extraordinary" measures (of a total $378B available) to ward off an "x-date" of running out of resources before defaulting. That's the highest in 2 weeks.
- Combined with $334B cash as of Jun 25 (after a bit of a buildup after the mid-June tax deadline), that's a total of roughly $465B in total resources available.
- We noted earlier this week that Treasury told Congress that it was required to extend its debt issuance suspension period from Jun 27 to Jul 24, in effect prolonging the use of extraordinary measures while we await a resolution to the debt limit impasse, probably through the fiscal legislation currently going through Congress.
- Realistically, fiscal dynamics so far this year point to potential for Treasury to get into September without running out of cash + extraordinary measures. That seems to be the broad market expectation.
US DATA: Cleveland, Dallas Fed PCE Medians Show Progress But Still Above-Target
The Cleveland and Dallas Fed's median PCE metrics showed a notable drop in May. All indices suggest PCE inflation running above 2%, and higher than the actual core and headline PCE measures, but pressures appear to have cooled from a pickup in the early months of the year.
- The Cleveland Fed's median PCE measure came in at 0.22% M/M, a 10-month low after April's 15-month high 0.31%. This left median PCE at 3.01% on a Y/Y basis, down from 3.06% prior for a the joint-lowest (with Feb) since September 2021.
- The Dallas Fed's annualized median rate fell to 2.01%, from 2.65% prior for a 10-month low. The 6-month annualized rate edged lower to 2.74% (2.76% prior), a 4-month low, with the Y/Y rate ticking down to 2.55% from 2.56%, echoing the Cleveland Fed for the lowest reading since September 2021.
USDCAD TECHS: Pivot Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 3: 1.4016 High May 12 and 13 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 1: 1.2710/3803 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: 1.3658 @ 16:23 BST Jun 27
- SUP 1: 1.3618 Low Jun 26
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
USDCAD has pulled back from its recent highs. The primary downtrend remains intact and short-term gains appear to have been corrective. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this price point would resume the downtrend. Any reversal higher would instead signal scope for a stronger retracement. Pivot resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3803.
