US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Nonfarm Payrolls Growth Seen Easing Whilst Private Firms
Jul-31 18:11
- Released Friday at 0830ET, nonfarm payrolls growth is expected at 104k in July per the broad Bloomberg consensus.
- The Bloomberg Whisper currently stands at 115k with little movement after Wednesday’s better than expected ADP report.
- It follows a stronger than expected 147k in June that was also accompanied by a rare two-month upward revision of 16k. However, that June report saw a return of unusually large positive government job creation, masking more disappointing private sector job creation of 74k (cons 100k) and a two-month downward revision of -16k.
- There is expected to be some payback this month from government payrolls, with the private sector seen almost entirely driving the increase with Bloomberg consensus of 100k. This is something we find when looking at a subset of just analysts at primary dealer institutions, with a median of 100k for both nonfarm and private payrolls.
- Highlighting the uncertainty here, there is a wide range of implied estimates for public sector employment of the 14 primary dealer analysts who specify estimates for both, from -55k to +20k.
- See the full MNI Payrolls Preview, here: https://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Aug2025_Preview_3bfda52c8f.pdf
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Sep'25 2Y Sale
Jul-01 18:10
- -12,035 TUU5 103-28.5, sell through 103-28.75 post time bid at 1354:06ET, DV01 $465,000.
- The 2Y trades 103-28.38 last (-4)
EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Trend Conditions Remain Intact
Jul-01 18:00
- RES 4: 0.8694 High Apr 14
- RES 3: 0.8648 76.4% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
- RES 2: 0.8624 High Apr 21
- RES 1: 0.8597 High Jul 01
- PRICE: 0.8588 @ 16:18 BST Jul 1
- SUP 1: 0.8514/8482 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 0.8459 Low Jun 11
- SUP 3: 0.8407 Low Jun 4
- SUP 4: 0.8356 Low May 29 and the bear trigger
The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and Monday’s strong start to the week reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies have recently crossed and are currently in a bull-mode position - highlighting a dominant uptrend. 0.8592, 61.8% of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg, has been pierced. Sights are on 0.8624, the Apr 21 high. Support to watch lies at 0.8482, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: June ADP Employment
Jul-01 17:50
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 07/02 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (1.1%, --)
- 07/02 0730 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (47.0%, --)
- 07/02 0815 ADP Employment Change (37k, 95k)
- 07/02 1130 US Tsy $65B 17W bill auctions
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
