US DATA: Non-Health Private Payrolls Stalled In Three Months To July

Busy day tomorrow: Aside from weekly claims, Thursday's session includes the June employment report due to Friday's 4th of July holiday closure.

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 07/03 0830 Trade Balance (-$61.6B, -$71.0B)
• 07/03 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (236k, 241k), Continuing Claims (1.974M, 1.962M)
• 07/03 0830 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (139k, 110k), Private Payrolls (140k, 102k)
• 07/03 0830 Unemployment Rate (4.2%, 4.3%), Participation Rate (62.4%, 62.5%)
• 07/03 0945 S&P Global US Services PMI (53.1, 53.1), Comp (52.8, --)
• 07/03 1000 ISM Services Index (49.9, 50.7), Prices Paid (68.7, 68.6)
• 07/03 1000 ISM Services New Orders (46.4, --), Employ (50.7, --)
• 07/03 1000 Factory Orders (-0.5%, 0.2%), Ex-Trans (-0.5%, 0.2%)
• 07/03 1000 Durable Goods Orders (16.4%, 16.4%), Ex-Trans (0.5%, 0.5%)
• 07/03 1000 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (1.7%, 1.7%), Ship (0.5%, 0.5%)
• 07/03 1130 Atl Fed Bostic on monetary policy, Frankfurt (text, Q&A)
• 07/03 1000 US Tsy $55B 4W & $45B 8W bill auctions
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

• EUR/USD: Jul07 $1.1770(E1.7bln); Jul08 $1.1700(E1.1bln)
• USD/JPY: Jul04 Y143.45-60($1.0bln); Jul08 Y142.60-75($1.0bln)
• AUD/USD: Jul04 $0.6500(A$1.2bln), $0.6600(A$2.6bln)

Senior figures from the centre-left of French politics are meeting to "discuss the conditions for a joint candidacy" ahead of the 2027 presidential election. In the last two presidential elections in 2017 and 2022, candidates from the centre-left/environmentalist left have come behind far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) leader Jean-Luc Melenchon. This has raised the prospect of parties of the moderate left uniting to try to boost their prospects.  

• The meeting includes: Socialist Party (PS) leader Olivier Faure, president of the PS in the National Assembly Boris Vallud, Ecologist Greens leader Marine Tondelier, Francois Ruffin and Clementine Autain (lawmakers who both left LFI after falling out with Melenchon), prime ministerial candidate for the left-wing New Popular Front alliance Lucie Castets, and former PS presidential candidate Segolene Royal.
• Opinion polling indicates that whoever is the presidential candidate for the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) will make the second round run-off, with the question then being who is their challenger. The centrist Ensemble bloc does not have a clear successor with incumbent President Emmanuel Macron term-limited.
• There is a chance of a four-way contest (centre-left vs. populist far-left vs. centrists vs. conservatives) to get into the run-off in 2027. As such, a unity candidate joining the PS, Ecologists and other anti-Melenchon leftists could have a strong chance of making the second round.
• Given that the 'Republican front' (voters backing any candidate but the RN) has held in recent elections, a unity candidate would have a strong chance of winning the presidency.